通过动态分段与模式分类,提升加密货币短期价格预测精度。
Adaptive Temporal Fusion Transformers for Cryptocurrency Price Prediction
- 按价格相对峰值动态划分时间片段,捕捉关键上涨阶段。
- 基于前序模式训练专属TFT模型,提升后续走势预测能力。
- 在以太坊/美元交易数据上显著优于固定长度模型。
高波动性的加密货币市场中,精准的短期价格预测对制定交易策略至关重要。尽管时序融合变压器(TFT)展现出潜力,但其直接应用常因市场的非平稳性和极端波动而受阻。本文提出一种自适应TFT建模方法,结合动态子序列长度与基于模式的分类,以增强短期预测能力。我们设计了一种新分割方法:当价格从此前最低点的涨幅超过阈值时,即判定为相对峰值,作为子序列的结束点,从而捕捉显著的上涨阶段,作为增长周期结束的关键标志,同时可能过滤噪声。关键的是,每个子序列以固定长度模式结尾,决定其所属类别,将具有相似前置条件的典型市场响应进行归类。针对每一类别训练独立的TFT模型,专门预测该类别的后续可变长度子序列演化。在为期两个月的以太坊-美元(ETH-USDT)10分钟数据测试中,实验结果表明,该自适应方法在预测准确率和模拟交易盈利能力方面均显著优于基线的固定长度TFT和LSTM模型。自适应分割与模式条件化预测的结合,实现了更稳健、更灵敏的加密货币价格预测。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Precise short-term price prediction in the highly volatile cryptocurrency market is critical for informed trading strategies. Although Temporal Fusion Transformers (TFTs) have shown potential, their direct use often struggles in the face of the market's non-stationary nature and extreme volatility. This paper introduces an adaptive TFT modeling approach leveraging dynamic subseries lengths and pattern-based categorization to enhance short-term forecasting. We propose a novel segmentation method where subseries end at relative maxima, identified when the price increase from the preceding minimum surpasses a threshold, thus capturing significant upward movements, which act as key markers for the end of a growth phase, while potentially filtering the noise. Crucially, the fixed-length pattern ending each subseries determines the category assigned to the subsequent variable-length subseries, grouping typical market responses that follow similar preceding conditions. A distinct TFT model trained for each category is specialized in predicting the evolution of these subsequent subseries based on their initial steps after the preceding peak. Experimental results on ETH-USDT 10-minute data over a two-month test period demonstrate that our adaptive approach significantly outperforms baseline fixed-length TFT and LSTM models in prediction accuracy and simulated trading profitability. Our combination of adaptive segmentation and pattern-conditioned forecasting enables more robust and responsive cryptocurrency price prediction.
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