用深度学习精准预测地学时间序列,提升灾害预警能力
GTS_Forecaster: a novel deep learning based geodetic time series forecasting toolbox with python
- 融合KAN、GNNGRU等模型,捕捉地学数据的非线性时空特征
- 内置抗噪与补全算法,有效处理缺失和异常数据
- 开源工具包,适合地质、海洋、气象等领域的研究人员使用
地学时间序列(如全球导航卫星系统(GNSS)位置、卫星测高海面高度(SSH)及潮位计(TG)记录)对监测地表形变和海平面变化至关重要。准确预测这些变量可增强地震、滑坡、沿海风暴潮及长期海平面上升的早期预警能力。然而,这类数据具有非线性、非平稳性和不完整性,传统模型难以捕捉长期依赖关系和复杂时空动态。本文提出GTS Forecaster,一个基于Python的开源时间序列预测工具箱,集成核注意力网络(KAN)、图神经网络门控循环单元(GNNGRU)和时序图神经网络(TimeGNN),有效建模非线性时空模式。工具箱还提供稳健的预处理功能,包括异常值检测和基于强化学习的缺损填补算法——卡尔曼-融合插值框架(KTIF)。目前支持GNSS、SSH和TG数据的预测、可视化与评估,并可拓展至一般时间序列任务。通过结合前沿模型与易用接口,推动深度学习在地学预测中的应用。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Geodetic time series -- such as Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) positions, satellite altimetry-derived sea surface height (SSH), and tide gauge (TG) records -- is essential for monitoring surface deformation and sea level change. Accurate forecasts of these variables can enhance early warning systems and support hazard mitigation for earthquakes, landslides, coastal storm surge, and long-term sea level. However, the nonlinear, non-stationary, and incomplete nature of such variables presents significant challenges for classic models, which often fail to capture long-term dependencies and complex spatiotemporal dynamics. We introduce GTS Forecaster, an open-source Python package for geodetic time series forecasting. It integrates advanced deep learning models -- including kernel attention networks (KAN), graph neural network-based gated recurrent units (GNNGRU), and time-aware graph neural networks (TimeGNN) -- to effectively model nonlinear spatial-temporal patterns. The package also provides robust preprocessing tools, including outlier detection and a reinforcement learning-based gap-filling algorithm, the Kalman-TransFusion Interpolation Framework (KTIF). GTS Forecaster currently supports forecasting, visualization, and evaluation of GNSS, SSH, and TG datasets, and is adaptable to general time series applications. By combining cutting-edge models with an accessible interface, it facilitates the application of deep learning in geodetic forecasting tasks.
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