arXiv:2509.11728cs.LG2025-09

用近邻模型快速预测大气分子团簇能量,精度媲美复杂模型。

Fast and Interpretable Machine Learning Modelling of Atmospheric Molecular Clusters

  • 基于化学距离度量的k-NN回归,兼顾速度与精度。
  • 在超25万条数据上保持近化学精度,误差常低于1 kcal/mol。
  • 模型可解释且适合初学者或快速探索大气化学过程。

理解大气分子团簇的形成与增长是解决气候模拟中最大不确定性之一——新气溶胶粒子生成的关键。虽然量子化学能提供精确洞察,但其高昂计算成本限制了大规模探索。本文提出一种快速、可解释且表现强劲的替代方案:k-近邻(k-NN)回归模型。通过引入化学相关的距离度量,包括核诱导度量和通过度量学习为核回归(MLKR)训练的度量,我们发现简单k-NN模型在精度上可媲美更复杂的核岭回归(KRR)模型,同时计算时间降低数个数量级。该方法基于成熟的FCHL19分子描述符,其他描述符(如FCHL18、MBDF、CM)也表现出类似性能。在QM9基准集及大气分子团簇大规模数据集(硫酸-水、硫酸-多碱基体系)上的应用表明,该k-NN模型达到近化学精度,可无缝扩展至超过25万条数据,并对未见大团簇展现出极低外推误差(常接近1 kcal/mol)。模型具备内置可解释性与直接不确定性估计,为加速大气化学及其他领域的发现提供了有力工具。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Understanding how atmospheric molecular clusters form and grow is key to resolving one of the biggest uncertainties in climate modelling: the formation of new aerosol particles. While quantum chemistry offers accurate insights into these early-stage clusters, its steep computational costs limit large-scale exploration. In this work, we present a fast, interpretable, and surprisingly powerful alternative: $k$-nearest neighbour ($k$-NN) regression model. By leveraging chemically informed distance metrics, including a kernel-induced metric and one learned via metric learning for kernel regression (MLKR), we show that simple $k$-NN models can rival more complex kernel ridge regression (KRR) models in accuracy, while reducing computational time by orders of magnitude. We perform this comparison with the well-established Faber-Christensen-Huang-Lilienfeld (FCHL19) molecular descriptor, but other descriptors (e.g., FCHL18, MBDF, and CM) can be shown to have similar performance. Applied to both simple organic molecules in the QM9 benchmark set and large datasets of atmospheric molecular clusters (sulphuric acid-water and sulphuric-multibase -base systems), our $k$-NN models achieve near-chemical accuracy, scale seamlessly to datasets with over 250,000 entries, and even appears to extrapolate to larger unseen clusters with minimal error (often nearing 1 kcal/mol). With built-in interpretability and straightforward uncertainty estimation, this work positions $k$-NN as a potent tool for accelerating discovery in atmospheric chemistry and beyond.

机器学习大气化学可解释性分子建模

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