用可控制的市场突变数据,测试金融模型的适应能力。
ProteuS: A Generative Approach for Simulating Concept Drift in Financial Markets
- 基于真实ETF数据拟合ARMA-GARCH模型,生成带预设突变的合成时间序列
- 模拟了渐进与突发两种市场状态切换,数据含完整技术指标
- 提供带真实标签的测试环境,适合评估漂移检测与自适应算法
金融市场是复杂的非平稳系统,其数据分布会随时间变化,即所谓“状态转换”或机器学习中的概念漂移。此类变化常由重大经济事件引发,给传统统计与机器学习模型带来挑战。开发和验证自适应算法的核心难题在于真实金融数据缺乏明确的地面真值,难以评估模型对漂移的检测与恢复能力。本文提出名为ProteuS的新框架,用于生成带有预定义结构断裂的半合成金融时间序列。方法上,通过将ARMA-GARCH模型拟合至真实ETF数据以捕捉不同市场状态,并模拟它们之间的真实、渐进及突发性转换。生成的数据集包含一组完整的技术指标,提供了具有已知状态转换真值的可控环境。对生成数据的分析表明任务复杂度高,不同市场状态间存在显著重叠。本工作旨在为研究社区提供一个工具,用于严格评估概念漂移检测与自适应机制,推动更鲁棒的金融预测模型发展。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Financial markets are complex, non-stationary systems where the underlying data distributions can shift over time, a phenomenon known as regime changes, as well as concept drift in the machine learning literature. These shifts, often triggered by major economic events, pose a significant challenge for traditional statistical and machine learning models. A fundamental problem in developing and validating adaptive algorithms is the lack of a ground truth in real-world financial data, making it difficult to evaluate a model's ability to detect and recover from these drifts. This paper addresses this challenge by introducing a novel framework, named ProteuS, for generating semi-synthetic financial time series with pre-defined structural breaks. Our methodology involves fitting ARMA-GARCH models to real-world ETF data to capture distinct market regimes, and then simulating realistic, gradual, and abrupt transitions between them. The resulting datasets, which include a comprehensive set of technical indicators, provide a controlled environment with a known ground truth of regime changes. An analysis of the generated data confirms the complexity of the task, revealing significant overlap between the different market states. We aim to provide the research community with a tool for the rigorous evaluation of concept drift detection and adaptation mechanisms, paving the way for more robust financial forecasting models.
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