通过分析科研论文引用网络,探究科技泡沫形成前的预警信号。
Examining the Relationship between Scientific Publishing Activity and Hype-Driven Financial Bubbles: A Comparison of the Dot-Com and AI Eras
- 用时间性引文网络分析科学家发文行为与市场变化的关系。
- AI时代部分学者的影响力模式与互联网泡沫期相似。
- 结果暗示当前可能无泡沫或出现新型金融泡沫,难以预测。
金融泡沫常在毫无预警下爆发,却带来长期经济影响。以互联网泡沫为例,创新技术因市场对未来的憧憬而引发动荡,这些技术实则源自科学家多年研究积累。这引发一个问题:能否通过分析泡沫前的科研出版数据(如引文网络)来预判未来泡沫的起落?为此,我们采用时间性引文网络分析法,对比1994至2001年互联网时代与2017至2024年人工智能时代的科研引文模式与金融市场数据。结果显示,互联网时代的模式无法明确预测人工智能泡沫的兴衰。尽管年度引文网络反映出两时期科研行为差异,但部分人工智能时代科学家的影响力模式与互联网泡沫期高度相似。结合LSTM、KNN、AR X/GARCH等多方法分析,数据暗示两种可能性:一是前所未见的新型金融泡沫,二是当前并无泡沫存在。结论表明,互联网时代的模式无法有效套用于人工智能市场。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Financial bubbles often arrive without much warning, but create long-lasting economic effects. For example, during the dot-com bubble, innovative technologies created market disruptions through excitement for a promised bright future. Such technologies originated from research where scientists had developed them for years prior to their entry into the markets. That raises a question on the possibility of analyzing scientific publishing data (e.g. citation networks) leading up to a bubble for signals that may forecast the rise and fall of similar future bubbles. To that end, we utilized temporal SNAs to detect possible relationships between the publication citation networks of scientists and financial market data during two modern eras of rapidly shifting technology: 1) dot-com era from 1994 to 2001 and 2) AI era from 2017 to 2024. Results showed that the patterns from the dot-com era (which did end in a bubble) did not definitively predict the rise and fall of an AI bubble. While yearly citation networks reflected possible changes in publishing behavior of scientists between the two eras, there was a subset of AI era scientists whose publication influence patterns mirrored those during the dot-com era. Upon further analysis using multiple analysis techniques (LSTM, KNN, AR X/GARCH), the data seems to suggest two possibilities for the AI era: unprecedented form of financial bubble unseen or that no bubble exists. In conclusion, our findings imply that the patterns present in the dot-com era do not effectively translate in such a manner to apply them to the AI market.
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