arXiv:2509.12080cs.LGcs.AI2025-09被引 2

用延迟嵌入构建时间序列的可解释模型,提升预测精度与泛化能力

A Time-Series Foundation Model by Universal Delay Embedding

  • 将时间序列转为哈诺克矩阵块,视作图像输入深度模型
  • 在隐空间线性预测非线性系统,均方误差降低超20%
  • 适合需要可解释性与跨领域泛化的时序建模任务

本文提出通用延迟嵌入(UDE),一种基于延迟嵌入表示与Koopman算子预测的预训练基础模型,旨在革新时间序列预测。基于Takens嵌入定理,UDE通过哈诺克矩阵构建二维子空间块,理论上保留底层动力系统的动力学与拓扑特性。这些块被视为图像,可利用先进深度学习技术高效处理;计算上,它们作为自注意力编码器的令牌,使有限维Koopman算子在隐空间中线性预测非线性时间序列。在多种基准与真实气候数据集上的广泛评估表明,相比当前最优基础模型,平均均方误差降低超过20%,且微调场景下泛化性能更优。所学动力学表示与Koopman算子预测形式展现出优异可解释性,能一致识别拓扑相关信息子空间,并稳健编码领域不变动力学,确立了UDE在通用时间序列建模与预测中的可扩展性与可解释性,具有广泛的科学与工业应用潜力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

This study introduces Universal Delay Embedding (UDE), a pretrained foundation model designed to revolutionize time-series forecasting through principled integration of delay embedding representation and Koopman operator prediction. Leveraging Takens' embedding theorem, UDE as a dynamical representation of observed data constructs two-dimensional subspace patches from Hankel matrices, theoretically preserving dynamical and topological properties of underlying dynamical systems. Such patches are viewed as images, which can be efficiently processed by exploiting advanced deep learning technologies. Computationally, these patches further serve as tokens for learning a self-attention encoder, thus enabling accurate prediction of nonlinear time-series by a finite-dimensional Koopman operator in a linear manner in a latent space. Extensive evaluations across various benchmarks and real-world climate datasets demonstrate over 20% average reduction in mean squared error versus state-of-the-art foundation models, alongside superior generalization in fine-tuning scenarios. In particular, the learned dynamical representations and Koopman operator prediction forms from the patches exhibit exceptional interpretability, with consistent identification of topologically informative subspaces and robust encoding of domain-invariant dynamics, establishing UDE as a scalable, interpretable framework for universal time-series modeling and forecasting with broad scientific and industrial applicability.

时间序列可解释性Koopman算子基础模型

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。