用深度学习融合卫星与气象站数据,实现美国每小时2公里气温图
Uncertainty-Aware Hourly Air Temperature Mapping at 2 km Resolution via Physics-Guided Deep Learning
- 结合物理规律与神经网络,重建云遮挡下的地表温度
- 在777亿像素和1.55亿站点数据上验证,精度达1.93℃
- 输出带不确定性估计,适合气候研究与环境监测
近地表空气温度是地球表面的关键物理参数。尽管气象站可提供连续监测,卫星则覆盖广阔区域,但单一数据源难以实现时空无缝的温度数据。本文提出一种数据驱动、物理引导的深度学习方法,生成美国本土地区每小时2公里分辨率的空气温度图。该方法名为Amplifier Air-Transformer:首先利用包含年周期特性的神经网络重建被云遮挡的GOES-16地表温度;通过线性项放大ERA5温度值至更细尺度,并用卷积层捕捉时空变化。随后,另一神经网络基于地表关键属性的潜在关系,将重建的地表温度转换为空气温度。通过深度集成学习实现预测不确定性估计,提升可靠性。模型基于2018-2024年间777亿个地表温度像素和15500万条气象站空气温度记录进行构建与测试,站点验证显示平均误差为1.93℃。该方法简化了地表温度重建与空气温度预测流程,可拓展至其他卫星数据源,实现高时空分辨率的连续空气温度监测。本研究生成的数据可通过https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15252812下载,项目主页见https://skrisliu.com/HourlyAirTemp2kmUSA/
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Near-surface air temperature is a key physical property of the Earth's surface. Although weather stations offer continuous monitoring and satellites provide broad spatial coverage, no single data source offers seamless data in a spatiotemporal fashion. Here, we propose a data-driven, physics-guided deep learning approach to generate hourly air temperature data at 2 km resolution over the contiguous United States. The approach, called Amplifier Air-Transformer, first reconstructs GOES-16 surface temperature data obscured by clouds. It does so through a neural network encoded with the annual temperature cycle, incorporating a linear term to amplify ERA5 temperature values at finer scales and convolutional layers to capture spatiotemporal variations. Then, another neural network transforms the reconstructed surface temperature into air temperature by leveraging its latent relationship with key Earth surface properties. The approach is further enhanced with predictive uncertainty estimation through deep ensemble learning to improve reliability. The proposed approach is built and tested on 77.7 billion surface temperature pixels and 155 million air temperature records from weather stations across the contiguous United States (2018-2024), achieving hourly air temperature mapping accuracy of 1.93 C in station-based validation. The proposed approach streamlines surface temperature reconstruction and air temperature prediction, and it can be extended to other satellite sources for seamless air temperature monitoring at high spatiotemporal resolution. The generated data of this study can be downloaded at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15252812, and the project webpage can be found at https://skrisliu.com/HourlyAirTemp2kmUSA/.
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