arXiv:2509.12611cs.AI2025-09被引 2

用历史金融事件类比,让大模型更懂新闻情绪。

Analogy-Driven Financial Chain-of-Thought (AD-FCoT): A Prompting Approach for Financial Sentiment Analysis

  • 通过类比历史事件构建推理链,提升情绪判断能力。
  • 在数千条新闻上准确率更高,与市场走势相关性更强。
  • 无需训练,解释透明,适合金融分析师使用。

金融新闻情绪分析对预测市场走势至关重要。随着大语言模型(LLMs)展现出强大的文本理解能力,该领域迎来新关注。然而现有方法常难以捕捉复杂的经济背景,且缺乏透明推理,影响可靠性。我们提出类比驱动的金融思维链(AD-FCoT),一种将类比推理与思维链(CoT)提示结合的框架,用于历史金融新闻的情绪预测。AD-FCoT引导模型将新事件与已知结果的历史情景进行类比,并将其嵌入结构化的逐步推理链中。据我们所知,这是首个明确结合类比示例与CoT推理的金融方法。该方法纯靠提示设计,无需额外训练数据或微调,利用模型内部金融知识生成类人分析逻辑。在数千篇新闻上的实验表明,AD-FCoT在情绪分类准确率上优于强基线,并与市场回报呈现显著更高的相关性。其生成的解释也符合领域专家认知,提供可解释洞察,适用于真实金融分析。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Financial news sentiment analysis is crucial for anticipating market movements. With the rise of AI techniques such as Large Language Models (LLMs), which demonstrate strong text understanding capabilities, there has been renewed interest in enhancing these systems. Existing methods, however, often struggle to capture the complex economic context of news and lack transparent reasoning, which undermines their reliability. We propose Analogy-Driven Financial Chain-of-Thought (AD-FCoT), a prompting framework that integrates analogical reasoning with chain-of-thought (CoT) prompting for sentiment prediction on historical financial news. AD-FCoT guides LLMs to draw parallels between new events and relevant historical scenarios with known outcomes, embedding these analogies into a structured, step-by-step reasoning chain. To our knowledge, this is among the first approaches to explicitly combine analogical examples with CoT reasoning in finance. Operating purely through prompting, AD-FCoT requires no additional training data or fine-tuning and leverages the model's internal financial knowledge to generate rationales that mirror human analytical reasoning. Experiments on thousands of news articles show that AD-FCoT outperforms strong baselines in sentiment classification accuracy and achieves substantially higher correlation with market returns. Its generated explanations also align with domain expertise, providing interpretable insights suitable for real-world financial analysis.

金融分析大模型可解释性类比推理

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