用随机森林预测牛群增重,准确率达97.3%
Mob-based cattle weight gain forecasting using ML models
- 基于历史数据与气象、年龄因子,用随机森林建模预测
- 模型R²达0.973,误差仅RMSE 0.040、MAE 0.033
- 开源预处理工具助力后续研究,适合畜牧与农业AI者
预测基于群体的牛只增重(MB CWG)对大型牧场具有重要意义,有助于优化饲养策略、科学选育并降低气候波动与市场变化风险。本文提出一种新方法,利用查尔斯·斯图尔特大学农场的历史数据,基于气象(降雨量、温度)和年龄因素,预测牛群未来一个月的增重情况。采用随机森林(RF)模型,并与支持向量回归(SVR)和长短期记忆网络(LSTM)进行对比。使用包含108个牛群共756组样本的数据集,结果表明,当同时引入天气与年龄因素时,RF模型表现最优,实现R²为0.973,均方根误差(RMSE)为0.040,平均绝对误差(MAE)为0.033。研究显示,天气与年龄显著提升预测精度,且在所有场景下均优于其他模型。此外,本文开发了公开的自动化预处理工具,可生成标准数据集,已发布于GitHub,供后续研究使用。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Forecasting mob based cattle weight gain (MB CWG) may benefit large livestock farms, allowing farmers to refine their feeding strategies, make educated breeding choices, and reduce risks linked to climate variability and market fluctuations. In this paper, a novel technique termed MB CWG is proposed to forecast the one month advanced weight gain of herd based cattle using historical data collected from the Charles Sturt University Farm. This research employs a Random Forest (RF) model, comparing its performance against Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) models for monthly weight gain prediction. Four datasets were used to evaluate the performance of models, using 756 sample data from 108 herd-based cattle, along with weather data (rainfall and temperature) influencing CWG. The RF model performs better than the SVR and LSTM models across all datasets, achieving an R^2 of 0.973, RMSE of 0.040, and MAE of 0.033 when both weather and age factors were included. The results indicate that including both weather and age factors significantly improves the accuracy of weight gain predictions, with the RF model outperforming the SVR and LSTM models in all scenarios. These findings demonstrate the potential of RF as a robust tool for forecasting cattle weight gain in variable conditions, highlighting the influence of age and climatic factors on herd based weight trends. This study has also developed an innovative automated pre processing tool to generate a benchmark dataset for MB CWG predictive models. The tool is publicly available on GitHub and can assist in preparing datasets for current and future analytical research..
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。