arXiv:2509.14020physics.ao-phcs.LG2025-09被引 16

用多种神经网络集成预测巴西海岸波高,精度比传统模型提升5%。

Artificial neural networks ensemble methodology to predict significant wave height

  • 构建MLP、RNN、LSTM、CNN及混合CNN-LSTM的神经网络集成模型。
  • 平均准确率达80%,最佳情况达88%,误差比美国国家海洋局模型降低5%。
  • 适合海洋预报、气象建模与数据驱动的海况预测研究者使用。

波浪变量的预报对依赖海洋状态描述的应用至关重要。由于描述该问题的微分方程具有混沌特性,常用方法是通过改变初始条件运行多次模拟并取平均结果,形成集合。近年来,随着可用数据量和计算能力的提升,机器学习算法被用作传统数值模型的替代方案,取得了可比或更优的效果。本文提出一种人工神经网络集成方法,包括MLP、RNN、LSTM、CNN以及混合CNN-LSTM架构,用于预测巴西六处沿海区域的显著波高。模型基于NOAA的数值再分析数据训练,目标是预测观测数据与数值模型输出之间的残差。文中还提出一种新的训练与目标数据集构建策略。结果显示,该框架可实现高效预报,平均准确率达80%,最佳情况下可达88%,相比NOAA数值模型误差降低5%,且计算成本持续下降。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The forecast of wave variables are important for several applications that depend on a better description of the ocean state. Due to the chaotic behaviour of the differential equations which model this problem, a well know strategy to overcome the difficulties is basically to run several simulations, by for instance, varying the initial condition, and averaging the result of each of these, creating an ensemble. Moreover, in the last few years, considering the amount of available data and the computational power increase, machine learning algorithms have been applied as surrogate to traditional numerical models, yielding comparative or better results. In this work, we present a methodology to create an ensemble of different artificial neural networks architectures, namely, MLP, RNN, LSTM, CNN and a hybrid CNN-LSTM, which aims to predict significant wave height on six different locations in the Brazilian coast. The networks are trained using NOAA's numerical reforecast data and target the residual between observational data and the numerical model output. A new strategy to create the training and target datasets is demonstrated. Results show that our framework is capable of producing high efficient forecast, with an average accuracy of $80\%$, that can achieve up to $88\%$ in the best case scenario, which means $5\%$ reduction in error metrics if compared to NOAA's numerical model, and a increasingly reduction of computational cost.

波高预测神经网络集成海洋建模机器学习

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