arXiv:2509.14057econ.GNcs.AI2025-09

人类监督未必更安全,关键在于能否实现人机协同增效。

Navigating the safe harbor paradox in human-machine systems

  • 通过蒙特卡洛模拟分析不同任务复杂度下的策略经济影响。
  • 复杂场景中人机协作若未真正增效,反而比纯机器或纯人工更差。
  • 决策者需重视组织支持以实现有效协同,而非简单分工。

在部署人工智能技能时,决策者常认为加入人工监督可作为规避全自动化风险的“安全港”。本文从经济学角度挑战这一普遍假设,指出人机技能策略的真实经济效用高度依赖情境与设计因素。为此,我们构建基于蒙特卡洛模拟的虚拟探索框架,量化不同复杂度任务下多种策略的经济影响。结果表明,在复杂场景中,人机协作可带来最高经济效用,但前提是实现真正的协同增效;若未能达成此目标,该策略可能劣于纯机器或纯人工方案,且在成本压力下会主动破坏价值。研究提示:在复杂高危情境下,仅分配人机角色不足以保障安全,也非低风险妥协,而是需要组织投入以实现增效的关键机遇。此外,尽管机器技能随时间提升成本效益,但在意外频发的环境中,仍无法替代对增效机制的根本关注。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

When deploying artificial skills, decision-makers often assume that layering human oversight is a safe harbor that mitigates the risks of full automation in high-complexity tasks. This paper formally challenges the economic validity of this widespread assumption, arguing that the true bottom-line economic utility of a human-machine skill policy is highly contingent on situational and design factors. To investigate this gap, we develop an in-silico exploratory framework for policy analysis based on Monte Carlo simulations to quantify the economic impact of skill policies in the execution of tasks presenting varying levels of complexity across diverse setups. Our results show that in complex scenarios, a human-machine strategy can yield the highest economic utility, but only if genuine augmentation is achieved. In contrast, when failing to realize this synergy, the human-machine approach can perform worse than either the machine-exclusive or the human-exclusive policy, actively destroying value under the pressure of costs that are not sufficiently compensated by performance gains. This finding points to a key implication for decision-makers: when the context is complex and critical, simply allocating human and machine skills to a task may be insufficient, and far from being a silver-bullet solution or a low-risk compromise. Rather, it is a critical opportunity to boost competitiveness that demands a strong organizational commitment to enabling augmentation. Also, our findings show that improving the cost-effectiveness of machine skills over time, while useful, does not replace the fundamental need to focus on achieving augmentation when surprise is the norm, even when machines become more effective than humans in handling uncertainty.

人机协同经济效用决策优化

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