用大模型分析英国议会75年移民话语，发现立场分化但党派间总体趋同。
Framing Migration: A Computational Analysis of UK Parliamentary Discourse
- 用大模型标注议员立场，追踪政党与时间维度的语气变化。
- 2025年保守党对移民态度最负面，劳工党与保守党存在持续意识形态差距。
- 移民话语从融合转向边境安全，国际法与人权议题逐渐替代国内立法讨论。
我们对跨越75年的英国议会辩论中关于移民的论述进行了大规模计算分析，并与美国国会话语进行比较。利用开源大模型，对每条陈述进行高层次立场标注，并追踪不同时间和政党的整体语气变化。针对英国，我们进一步采用半自动化框架提取细粒度叙事框架，以捕捉移民话语的细微差异。研究发现，尽管美国话语日益极化，英国议会态度在各政党间仍相对一致，但劳工党和保守党之间存在持续的意识形态分歧，2025年达到最负面水平。对英国议会话语的叙事框架分析显示，安全化叙事（如边境控制、非法移民）日益突出，而长期融合导向的框架（如社会融合）则持续下降。此外，关于国家移民法律的讨论逐渐被国际法与人权议题取代，揭示了话语趋势的深层演变。总体而言，研究展示了大模型在政治与历史语境下支持可扩展、精细化话语分析的能力。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
We present a large-scale computational analysis of migration-related discourse in UK parliamentary debates spanning over 75 years and compare it with US congressional discourse. Using open-weight LLMs, we annotate each statement with high-level stances toward migrants and track the net tone toward migrants across time and political parties. For the UK, we extend this with a semi-automated framework for extracting fine-grained narrative frames to capture nuances of migration discourse. Our findings show that, while US discourse has grown increasingly polarised, UK parliamentary attitudes remain relatively aligned across parties, with a persistent ideological gap between Labour and the Conservatives, reaching its most negative level in 2025. The analysis of narrative frames in the UK parliamentary statements reveals a shift toward securitised narratives such as border control and illegal immigration, while longer-term integration-oriented frames such as social integration have declined. Moreover, discussions of national law about immigration have been replaced over time by international law and human rights, revealing nuances in discourse trends. Taken together broadly, our findings demonstrate how LLMs can support scalable, fine-grained discourse analysis in political and historical contexts.
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