arXiv:2509.15740cs.LG2025-09

用伪目标实现电池衰减的在线多步预测,无需等待数据积累即可持续更新。

Incremental Multistep Forecasting of Battery Degradation Using Pseudo Targets

  • 基于输入序列线性外推生成伪未来样本,实时计算损失并更新模型。
  • 在平滑衰减数据上达0.00197 RMSE,不规则衰减数据上达0.01588 RMSE。
  • 适合需要持续在线更新的电池健康监测系统,尤其适用于突发再生场景。

数据驱动模型可准确实现早期电池健康状态预测,防止设备故障与安全风险。现有大多数机器学习模型为离线模式,每次遇到新数据分布均需重新训练,难以适应动态变化。因此亟需一种在线增量式多步预测方法,使模型能持续适应数据分布变化。然而,现有方法难以在当前时刻修正预测偏差,且需等待大量流式数据积累后才能重训练。本文提出iFSNet(增量快速-慢速学习网络),对FSNet进行改进,支持单次遍历(逐样本)模式,通过输入序列的线性回归外推生成伪未来样本(伪目标),据此计算多步预测损失并持续更新模型。该方法融合了FSNet的关联记忆与自适应结构机制,同时利用伪目标实现模型增量优化。在平滑退化轨迹数据集上,模型达到0.00197 RMSE和0.00154 MAE;在存在容量再生突增的不规则退化数据集上,分别达到0.01588 RMSE和0.01234 MAE。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Data-driven models accurately perform early battery prognosis to prevent equipment failure and further safety hazards. Most existing machine learning (ML) models work in offline mode which must consider their retraining post-deployment every time new data distribution is encountered. Hence, there is a need for an online ML approach where the model can adapt to varying distributions. However, existing online incremental multistep forecasts are a great challenge as there is no way to correct the model of its forecasts at the current instance. Also, these methods need to wait for a considerable amount of time to acquire enough streaming data before retraining. In this study, we propose iFSNet (incremental Fast and Slow learning Network) which is a modified version of FSNet for a single-pass mode (sample-by-sample) to achieve multistep forecasting using pseudo targets. It uses a simple linear regressor of the input sequence to extrapolate pseudo future samples (pseudo targets) and calculate the loss from the rest of the forecast and keep updating the model. The model benefits from the associative memory and adaptive structure mechanisms of FSNet, at the same time the model incrementally improves by using pseudo targets. The proposed model achieved 0.00197 RMSE and 0.00154 MAE on datasets with smooth degradation trajectories while it achieved 0.01588 RMSE and 0.01234 MAE on datasets having irregular degradation trajectories with capacity regeneration spikes.

电池预测在线学习伪目标多步预测

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