研究城市环境如何影响犯罪与安全感,发现破窗效应真实存在且因城而异。
Revisiting Broken Windows Theory
- 用机器学习匹配控制人口结构,分析城市建筑对犯罪的影响。
- 废弃建筑和交通枢纽均增加犯罪率与安全焦虑感,但效果因城市而异。
- 政策需因地制宜,不能一刀切,应针对具体区域和人群设计。
我们重新审视了城市景观中的物理结构如何影响犯罪问题。通过基于机器学习的匹配技术控制人口构成,评估了纽约市和芝加哥不同类型的都市结构对暴力犯罪发生率的影响。此外,我们还探讨了犯罪感知与实际犯罪率之间的关系,分别分析了城市物理环境如何塑造人们对安全的主观感受。研究结果有两方面:第一,与以往研究一致,废弃建筑等社会失序迹象与更高的犯罪率及更强的危险感相关;公共交通运输设施等吸引人流的结构也具有类似效应。第二,这些影响在城市间和城市内部并不一致:同一结构类型在两座城市中的影响程度、空间集中性及人群异质性存在差异;在同一城市内,不同结构类型的影响又受不同人口变量干扰。总体表明,统一模式的犯罪防控策略不可行,政策干预必须针对具体目标精准设计。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
We revisit the longstanding question of how physical structures in urban landscapes influence crime. Leveraging machine learning-based matching techniques to control for demographic composition, we estimate the effects of several types of urban structures on the incidence of violent crime in New York City and Chicago. We additionally contribute to a growing body of literature documenting the relationship between perception of crime and actual crime rates by separately analyzing how the physical urban landscape shapes subjective feelings of safety. Our results are twofold. First, in consensus with prior work, we demonstrate a "broken windows" effect in which abandoned buildings, a sign of social disorder, are associated with both greater incidence of crime and a heightened perception of danger. This is also true of types of urban structures that draw foot traffic such as public transportation infrastructure. Second, these effects are not uniform within or across cities. The criminogenic effects of the same structure types across two cities differ in magnitude, degree of spatial localization, and heterogeneity across subgroups, while within the same city, the effects of different structure types are confounded by different demographic variables. Taken together, these results emphasize that one-size-fits-all approaches to crime reduction are untenable and policy interventions must be specifically tailored to their targets.
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