用大模型零样本预测用户出行,靠分层推理理解长期意图与短期偏好。
Zero-Shot Human Mobility Forecasting via Large Language Model with Hierarchical Reasoning
- 将出行预测转为自然语言问答,利用大模型理解用户历史和上下文。
- 通过分层规划与选择机制,实现长短期意图协同建模,提升泛化能力。
- 无需标注数据即可预测新用户新地点,适合城市规划与个性化服务场景。
人类出行预测在交通规划、城市管理与个性化推荐中具有重要意义。然而,现有方法往往难以泛化到未见过的用户或位置,且受限于标注数据不足与出行模式复杂性,难以捕捉动态意图。本文提出 ZHMF 框架,结合语义增强的检索与反思机制,以及基于层次化语言模型的推理系统,将任务重构为自然语言问答范式。借助大模型对用户历史与上下文的语义理解,该方法可处理此前未见的预测场景。进一步引入分层反思机制,通过活动级规划器与位置级选择器的协作,实现对长期用户意图与短期上下文偏好的联合建模。在标准人类出行数据集上的实验表明,本方法优于现有模型。消融实验验证了各模块贡献,案例研究展示了其捕捉用户意图并适应多样情境的能力。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Human mobility forecasting is important for applications such as transportation planning, urban management, and personalized recommendations. However, existing methods often fail to generalize to unseen users or locations and struggle to capture dynamic intent due to limited labeled data and the complexity of mobility patterns. We propose ZHMF, a framework for zero-shot human mobility forecasting that combines a semantic enhanced retrieval and reflection mechanism with a hierarchical language model based reasoning system. The task is reformulated as a natural language question answering paradigm. Leveraging LLMs semantic understanding of user histories and context, our approach handles previously unseen prediction scenarios. We further introduce a hierarchical reflection mechanism for iterative reasoning and refinement by decomposing forecasting into an activity level planner and a location level selector, enabling collaborative modeling of long term user intentions and short term contextual preferences. Experiments on standard human mobility datasets show that our approach outperforms existing models. Ablation studies reveal the contribution of each module, and case studies illustrate how the method captures user intentions and adapts to diverse contextual scenarios.
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