用排序学习预测高收益风险投资者,提升市场风控精准度。
Learn to Rank Risky Investors: A Case Study of Predicting Retail Traders' Behaviour and Profitability
- 将风险识别转为排序任务,融合盈亏数据设计新型损失函数
- 相比顶尖模型,F1得分提升8.4%,平均利润高出10%-17%
- 适合交易所等机构用于实时监管与风险对冲决策
在金融市场中,识别高收益风险投资者对交易场所等做市商至关重要,有助于实时决策合规与对冲。然而,个体交易者行为复杂多变,传统分类与异常检测方法常设固定风险阈值,难以应对这种动态性。为此,我们提出一种盈利感知的风险排序模型(PA-RiskRanker),将识别高风险交易者问题重构为学习排序任务,采用盈利感知的二元交叉熵损失(PA-BCE)和基于Transformer的排序器,结合自交叉交易者注意力机制,有效整合盈亏(P&L)信息并捕捉交易者间关系。该研究揭示了现有深度学习排序算法在金融风险场景中忽视盈亏重要性的局限。通过优先考虑盈亏,本方法显著提升风险识别能力,在相同测试集上相较当前最优排序模型(如Rankformer)F1分数提升8.4%;同时,平均利润比所有基准模型高出10%-17%。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Identifying risky traders with high profits in financial markets is crucial for market makers, such as trading exchanges, to ensure effective risk management through real-time decisions on regulation compliance and hedging. However, capturing the complex and dynamic behaviours of individual traders poses significant challenges. Traditional classification and anomaly detection methods often establish a fixed risk boundary, failing to account for this complexity and dynamism. To tackle this issue, we propose a profit-aware risk ranker (PA-RiskRanker) that reframes the problem of identifying risky traders as a ranking task using Learning-to-Rank (LETOR) algorithms. Our approach features a Profit-Aware binary cross entropy (PA-BCE) loss function and a transformer-based ranker enhanced with a self-cross-trader attention pipeline. These components effectively integrate profit and loss (P&L) considerations into the training process while capturing intra- and inter-trader relationships. Our research critically examines the limitations of existing deep learning-based LETOR algorithms in trading risk management, which often overlook the importance of P&L in financial scenarios. By prioritising P&L, our method improves risky trader identification, achieving an 8.4% increase in F1 score compared to state-of-the-art (SOTA) ranking models like Rankformer. Additionally, it demonstrates a 10%-17% increase in average profit compared to all benchmark models.
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