arXiv:2509.16707q-fin.PMcs.LG2025-09

用轻量模型捕捉金融数据中的细微规律,实现低风险高收益的智能交易。

Increase Alpha: Performance and Risk of an AI-Driven Trading Framework

  • 采用定制特征的前馈与循环网络,适应噪声大的金融数据。
  • 组合策略年化夏普比率超2.5,最大回撤仅3%,对冲标普500效果显著。
  • 模型在2025年初市场波动期仍表现稳定,适合实战部署。

金融市场存在未被利用的价格、成交量及横截面关系模式。尽管多数方法依赖大规模Transformer,本文采用领域聚焦路径:使用前馈与循环神经网络结合精心筛选特征,以捕捉嘈杂金融数据中的细微规律。该轻量化设计计算成本低,在低信噪比环境下依然可靠,适用于每日规模化生产。在Increase Alpha,我们构建了一个深度学习框架,可将超过800只美国股票映射为每日方向性信号,计算开销极小。本文旨在两方面:一是概述预测模型的整体架构(不披露核心机制),二是通过透明的行业标准指标评估其实时表现。预测准确率对比了朴素基准与宏观指标。性能结果以累计收益、年化夏普比率和最大回撤衡量。最优投资组合使用我们的信号,呈现低风险、持续正回报,夏普比率超过2.5,最大回撤约3%,与标普500相关性接近零。我们还分析了模型在不同市场周期的表现,包括2025年初美国股市的剧烈波动。分析表明模型具备强鲁棒性,波动期间表现依然稳定。综合来看,若选择恰当变量,市场非效率可被系统性捕获,且仅需适度计算开销。本报告强调传统深度学习框架在金融领域生成AI优势的巨大潜力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

There are inefficiencies in financial markets, with unexploited patterns in price, volume, and cross-sectional relationships. While many approaches use large-scale transformers, we take a domain-focused path: feed-forward and recurrent networks with curated features to capture subtle regularities in noisy financial data. This smaller-footprint design is computationally lean and reliable under low signal-to-noise, crucial for daily production at scale. At Increase Alpha, we built a deep-learning framework that maps over 800 U.S. equities into daily directional signals with minimal computational overhead. The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we outline the general overview of the predictive model without disclosing its core underlying concepts. Second, we evaluate its real-time performance through transparent, industry standard metrics. Forecast accuracy is benchmarked against both naive baselines and macro indicators. The performance outcomes are summarized via cumulative returns, annualized Sharpe ratio, and maximum drawdown. The best portfolio combination using our signals provides a low-risk, continuous stream of returns with a Sharpe ratio of more than 2.5, maximum drawdown of around 3%, and a near-zero correlation with the S&P 500 market benchmark. We also compare the model's performance through different market regimes, such as the recent volatile movements of the US equity market in the beginning of 2025. Our analysis showcases the robustness of the model and significantly stable performance during these volatile periods. Collectively, these findings show that market inefficiencies can be systematically harvested with modest computational overhead if the right variables are considered. This report will emphasize the potential of traditional deep learning frameworks for generating an AI-driven edge in the financial market.

智能交易深度学习量化投资金融建模

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