arXiv:2509.17063cs.LG2025-09

拆解时间序列模型组件,自动组装更优预测方案。

TSGym: Design Choices for Deep Multivariate Time-Series Forecasting

  • 将复杂模型拆分为细粒度组件,如分通道策略、注意力模块等
  • 在多个数据集上显著超越现有最先进方法,提升模型泛化能力
  • 适合需要高效定制化时序预测系统的研究人员与工程师

深度学习推动了多变量时间序列预测(MTSF)的显著进步。然而,当前研究多从整体视角评估模型,掩盖了各组件的独立贡献,导致关键问题未被充分揭示。本文系统性地将深度MTSF方法分解为核心细粒度组件,如序列分块标记化、通道独立策略、注意力模块,甚至大语言模型与时间序列基础模型。通过大量实验与组件级分析,本工作提供了比以往整体模型对比更深入的洞察。此外,提出新型自动化解决方案TSGym,不依赖传统超参数调优或神经架构搜索,而是进行细粒度组件选择与自动模型构建,可针对多样化时间序列数据生成更高效的预测模型,增强跨数据源的迁移能力与对分布偏移的鲁棒性。大量实验证明,TSGym显著优于现有最优MTSF与AutoML方法。所有代码已公开于https://github.com/SUFE-AILAB/TSGym。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Recently, deep learning has driven significant advancements in multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF) tasks. However, much of the current research in MTSF tends to evaluate models from a holistic perspective, which obscures the individual contributions and leaves critical issues unaddressed. Adhering to the current modeling paradigms, this work bridges these gaps by systematically decomposing deep MTSF methods into their core, fine-grained components like series-patching tokenization, channel-independent strategy, attention modules, or even Large Language Models and Time-series Foundation Models. Through extensive experiments and component-level analysis, our work offers more profound insights than previous benchmarks that typically discuss models as a whole. Furthermore, we propose a novel automated solution called TSGym for MTSF tasks. Unlike traditional hyperparameter tuning, neural architecture searching or fixed model selection, TSGym performs fine-grained component selection and automated model construction, which enables the creation of more effective solutions tailored to diverse time series data, therefore enhancing model transferability across different data sources and robustness against distribution shifts. Extensive experiments indicate that TSGym significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art MTSF and AutoML methods. All code is publicly available on https://github.com/SUFE-AILAB/TSGym.

时间序列自动化建模组件分解模型优化

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