融合物理规律与交互特征,实现高速变道意图三分类精准预测。
Multi-Scenario Highway Lane-Change Intention Prediction: A Physics-Informed AI Framework for Three-Class Classification
- 引入车辆运动学与交通安全性指标,构建物理感知学习框架。
- 在highD和exiD数据集上达99.8%准确率,1秒预测时宏F1超93%。
- 适合自动驾驶系统实时决策,尤其适用于复杂匝道场景。
变道行为是高速公路事故的主要原因,亟需精准意图预测以提升自动驾驶系统的安全性和决策能力。现有基于机器学习与深度学习的方法(如SVM、CNN、LSTM、Transformer)虽有潜力,但多局限于二分类、场景单一,且在长时预测下性能下降。本文提出一种物理信息驱动的AI框架,将车辆运动学、交互可行性及交通安全性指标(如距离跟车、时间跟车、碰撞时间、闭合间隙时间)显式融入学习过程。变道预测被建模为左变道、右变道、无变道三分类任务,并在直线路段(highD)与复杂匝道场景(exiD)上评估。通过融合车辆运动学与交互特征,尤其是LightGBM模型,实现了领先性能:在highD上达到99.8%准确率与93.6%宏F1,exiD上达96.1%准确率与88.7%宏F1,1秒预测时优于两层堆叠LSTM基线。结果表明,该物理感知、特征丰富的机器学习框架对自动驾驶系统的实时变道意图预测具有显著实用价值。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Lane-change maneuvers are a leading cause of highway accidents, underscoring the need for accurate intention prediction to improve the safety and decision-making of autonomous driving systems. While prior studies using machine learning and deep learning methods (e.g., SVM, CNN, LSTM, Transformers) have shown promise, most approaches remain limited by binary classification, lack of scenario diversity, and degraded performance under longer prediction horizons. In this study, we propose a physics-informed AI framework that explicitly integrates vehicle kinematics, interaction feasibility, and traffic-safety metrics (e.g., distance headway, time headway, time-to-collision, closing gap time) into the learning process. lane-change prediction is formulated as a three-class problem that distinguishes left change, right change, and no change, and is evaluated across both straight highway segments (highD) and complex ramp scenarios (exiD). By integrating vehicle kinematics with interaction features, our machine learning models, particularly LightGBM, achieve state-of-the-art accuracy and strong generalization. Results show up to 99.8% accuracy and 93.6% macro F1 on highD, and 96.1% accuracy and 88.7% macro F1 on exiD at a 1-second horizon, outperforming a two-layer stacked LSTM baseline. These findings demonstrate the practical advantages of a physics-informed and feature-rich machine learning framework for real-time lane-change intention prediction in autonomous driving systems.
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