arXiv:2509.18709math.OCcs.LG2025-09被引 2

提出自适应重启框架,解决需求非平稳下的缺货与数据截断问题

Learning When to Restart: Nonstationary Newsvendor from Uncensored to Censored Demand

  • 基于分布检测与动态重启机制,无需先验知识
  • 在真实医护与疫情数据上表现优于现有方法
  • 适合需应对突发或渐进变化的运营管理场景

研究在非参数需求模型和一般非平稳性度量下的非平稳报童问题,解决未知非平稳程度与需求截断的实践挑战。提出一种新的分布检测与重启框架,并针对无截断和截断需求场景设计两种高效算法。算法完全自适应,无需预先知晓非平稳程度与类型,可灵活处理非平稳环境中的突变与渐变。通过复杂证明技术,建立了匹配的上界与下界最优性理论,涵盖一般与精细结构条件。基于真实世界数据集(包括急诊科护士排班与新冠检测需求)的数值实验显示,该算法具有卓越且稳健的实证性能。尽管源自报童问题,该分布检测与重启框架可广泛适用于一类非平稳随机优化问题。管理层面,为非平稳环境下的决策提供了实用、易部署且理论完备的解决方案。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

We study nonstationary newsvendor problems under nonparametric demand models and general distributional measures of nonstationarity, addressing the practical challenges of unknown degree of nonstationarity and demand censoring. We propose a novel distributional-detection-and-restart framework for learning in nonstationary environments, and instantiate it through two efficient algorithms for the uncensored and censored demand settings. The algorithms are fully adaptive, requiring no prior knowledge of the degree and type of nonstationarity, and offer a flexible yet powerful approach to handling both abrupt and gradual changes in nonstationary environments. We establish a comprehensive optimality theory for our algorithms by deriving matching regret upper and lower bounds under both general and refined structural conditions with nontrivial proof techniques that are of independent interest. Numerical experiments using real-world datasets, including nurse staffing data for emergency departments and COVID-19 test demand data, showcase the algorithms' superior and robust empirical performance. While motivated by the newsvendor problem, the distributional-detection-and-restart framework applies broadly to a wide class of nonstationary stochastic optimization problems. Managerially, our framework provides a practical, easy-to-deploy, and theoretically grounded solution for decision-making under nonstationarity.

报童问题非平稳优化动态重启

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