arXiv:2509.19363cs.LGcs.AI2025-09

用智能模型分析信用卡诈骗如何影响美国家庭经济波动

Analyzing the Impact of Credit Card Fraud on Economic Fluctuations of American Households Using an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System

  • 融合小波分解与注意力机制,动态捕捉欺诈引发的经济异常
  • 相比传统模型,预测误差降低17.8%,有效识别长期异常模式
  • 适合金融风控、行为经济学研究者参考

信用卡欺诈正日益成为威胁美国家庭财务状况的主要因素,导致家庭经济行为出现不可预测的变化。本文提出一种基于改进ANFIS的混合分析方法,通过引入多分辨率小波分解模块和时序注意力机制,对历史交易数据与宏观经济指标进行离散小波变换,生成局部经济冲击信号。这些特征输入基于Takagi-Sugeno模糊规则的深度模糊规则库,该规则库采用自适应高斯隶属函数。模型还设计了时序注意力编码器,动态分配多尺度经济行为模式的权重,提升模糊推理阶段的相关性评估效果,增强对欺诈引起的长期时间依赖性和异常的捕捉能力。所提方法区别于传统ANFIS的固定输入输出关系,通过模块化训练过程将模糊规则激活、小波基选择与时间相关权重相融合。实验结果表明,相较于本地神经模糊模型与传统LSTM模型,均方根误差(RMSE)降低了17.8%。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Credit card fraud is assuming growing proportions as a major threat to the financial position of American household, leading to unpredictable changes in household economic behavior. To solve this problem, in this paper, a new hybrid analysis method is presented by using the Enhanced ANFIS. The model proposes several advances of the conventional ANFIS framework and employs a multi-resolution wavelet decomposition module and a temporal attention mechanism. The model performs discrete wavelet transformations on historical transaction data and macroeconomic indicators to generate localized economic shock signals. The transformed features are then fed into a deep fuzzy rule library which is based on Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy rules with adaptive Gaussian membership functions. The model proposes a temporal attention encoder that adaptively assigns weights to multi-scale economic behavior patterns, increasing the effectiveness of relevance assessment in the fuzzy inference stage and enhancing the capture of long-term temporal dependencies and anomalies caused by fraudulent activities. The proposed method differs from classical ANFIS which has fixed input-output relations since it integrates fuzzy rule activation with the wavelet basis selection and the temporal correlation weights via a modular training procedure. Experimental results show that the RMSE was reduced by 17.8% compared with local neuro-fuzzy models and conventional LSTM models.

金融风控模糊系统时间序列欺诈检测

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