arXiv:2509.19374eess.SPcs.LG2025-09

用LSTM预测阿根廷科尔多瓦市短期用电量,误差仅3.2%。

Short-Term Regional Electricity Demand Forecasting in Argentina Using LSTM Networks

  • 融合历史数据与天气、时间等外部因素,用LSTM建模用电趋势
  • 预测误差均值为3.20%,决定系数达0.95,日峰谷时刻预测准确率超九成
  • 适合电网调度人员参考,兼顾精度与实际运行需求

本研究构建并优化了一种基于长短期记忆(LSTM)网络的深度学习模型,用于预测阿根廷科尔多瓦市的短期小时级电力需求。模型整合历史用电数据与外生变量(气候因素、时间周期和人口统计),实现高精度预测:平均绝对百分比误差为3.20%,决定系数达0.95。周期性时间编码与气象变量的引入对捕捉季节模式和极端用电事件至关重要,显著提升了模型的鲁棒性和泛化能力。此外,还进行了两项补充分析:(i) 利用随机森林回归评估外生驱动因素的相对重要性;(ii) 评估模型对每日用电峰值和谷值出现时刻的预测性能,在超过三分之二测试日中实现精确到小时的预测,超过90%情况下误差在±1小时内。结果表明该框架兼具高预测精度与实际应用价值,为电网运营商在多样化需求场景下制定优化规划与控制策略提供有力支持。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

This study presents the development and optimization of a deep learning model based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to predict short-term hourly electricity demand in Córdoba, Argentina. Integrating historical consumption data with exogenous variables (climatic factors, temporal cycles, and demographic statistics), the model achieved high predictive precision, with a mean absolute percentage error of 3.20\% and a determination coefficient of 0.95. The inclusion of periodic temporal encodings and weather variables proved crucial to capture seasonal patterns and extreme consumption events, enhancing the robustness and generalizability of the model. In addition to the design and hyperparameter optimization of the LSTM architecture, two complementary analyses were carried out: (i) an interpretability study using Random Forest regression to quantify the relative importance of exogenous drivers, and (ii) an evaluation of model performance in predicting the timing of daily demand maxima and minima, achieving exact-hour accuracy in more than two-thirds of the test days and within abs(1) hour in over 90\% of cases. Together, these results highlight both the predictive accuracy and operational relevance of the proposed framework, providing valuable insights for grid operators seeking optimized planning and control strategies under diverse demand scenarios.

电力预测LSTM时间序列智能电网

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