arXiv:2509.19408cs.LGstat.AP2025-09被引 3

用特征筛选与聚类优化信贷违约预测,效果优于传统方法。

Enhancing Credit Default Prediction Using Boruta Feature Selection and DBSCAN Algorithm with Different Resampling Techniques

  • 结合硼特特征选择和DBSCAN去噪,再用SMOTE-Tomek平衡数据。
  • 最优模型在F1-score达82.56%,ROC-AUC达90.90%。
  • 适合金融风控、信用评估等需高精度识别少数类的场景。

本研究通过比较SMOTE、SMOTE-Tomek和ADASYN三种常用方法,解决信贷违约数据中的类别不平衡问题。基于克利夫兰大学机器学习库的真实数据集,先在未平衡数据上测试多种机器学习模型作为基线。除朴素贝叶斯和KNN外,还考察了XGBoost、AdaBoost、GBM和LightGBM等集成提升算法。在使用硼特特征选择和基于DBSCAN的异常值检测前后,分别进行数据重采样。评估指标包括ROC-AUC、PR-AUC、G-mean和F1-score。实验结果表明,硼特+DBSCAN+SMOTE-Tomek+GBM组合模型表现最佳:F1-score为82.56%,G-mean为82.98%,ROC-AUC为90.90%,PR-AUC为91.85%。该结果为构建更稳健的信用风险系统提供了基础。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

This study examines credit default prediction by comparing three techniques, namely SMOTE, SMOTE-Tomek, and ADASYN, that are commonly used to address the class imbalance problem in credit default situations. Recognizing that credit default datasets are typically skewed, with defaulters comprising a much smaller proportion than non-defaulters, we began our analysis by evaluating machine learning (ML) models on the imbalanced data without any resampling to establish baseline performance. These baseline results provide a reference point for understanding the impact of subsequent balancing methods. In addition to traditional classifiers such as Naive Bayes and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), our study also explores the suitability of advanced ensemble boosting algorithms, including Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), AdaBoost, Gradient Boosting Machines (GBM), and Light GBM for credit default prediction using Boruta feature selection and DBSCAN-based outlier detection, both before and after resampling. A real-world credit default data set sourced from the University of Cleveland ML Repository was used to build ML classifiers, and their performances were tested. The criteria chosen to measure model performance are the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC), area under the precision-recall curve (PR-AUC), G-mean, and F1-scores. The results from this empirical study indicate that the Boruta+DBSCAN+SMOTE-Tomek+GBM classifier outperformed the other ML models (F1-score: 82.56%, G-mean: 82.98%, ROC-AUC: 90.90%, PR-AUC: 91.85%) in a credit default context. The findings establish a foundation for future progress in creating more resilient and adaptive credit default systems, which will be essential as credit-based transactions continue to rise worldwide.

信贷违约特征选择数据平衡集成学习

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