arXiv:2509.19577stat.MLcs.LG2025-09被引 1

用统一模型同时补全医疗时间序列缺失数据并分类,提升预测精度。

MAGIC: Multi-task Gaussian process for joint imputation and classification in healthcare time series

  • 构建分层多任务高斯过程,联合完成补全与分类。
  • 在两个临床场景中预测准确率优于现有方法。
  • 适合样本少、数据稀疏的医疗时序分析任务。

时间序列分析已成为提升医疗诊断与管理的重要工具,但常面临时间错位与数据稀疏两大挑战。传统方法采用先补全后预测的两步流程。本文提出MAGIC(多任务高斯过程用于联合插补与分类),一种新型统一框架,通过分层多任务高斯过程结合函数逻辑回归,在同一模型中实现类信息驱动的缺失值插补与标签预测。针对难以计算的似然项,MAGIC采用泰勒展开近似并给出有界误差分析;参数估计使用基于块坐标优化的期望最大化算法,并提供收敛性分析。在两项真实医疗应用中验证:预测轻度创伤性脑损伤后头痛改善情况,以及入院48小时内院内死亡率。在两个任务中,MAGIC均显著优于现有方法。该模型能在有限样本下实现实时精准预测,有助于早期临床评估与治疗决策。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Time series analysis has emerged as an important tool for improving patient diagnosis and management in healthcare applications. However, these applications commonly face two critical challenges: time misalignment and data sparsity. Traditional approaches address these issues through a two-step process of imputation followed by prediction. We propose MAGIC (Multi-tAsk Gaussian Process for Imputation and Classification), a novel unified framework that simultaneously performs class-informed missing value imputation and label prediction within a hierarchical multi-task Gaussian process coupled with functional logistic regression. To handle intractable likelihood components, MAGIC employs Taylor expansion approximations with bounded error analysis, and parameter estimation is performed using EM algorithm with block coordinate optimization supported by convergence analysis. We validate MAGIC through two healthcare applications: prediction of post-traumatic headache improvement following mild traumatic brain injury and prediction of in-hospital mortality within 48 hours after ICU admission. In both applications, MAGIC achieves superior predictive accuracy compared to existing methods. The ability to generate real-time and accurate predictions with limited samples facilitates early clinical assessment and treatment planning, enabling healthcare providers to make more informed treatment decisions.

医疗时间序列联合建模高斯过程数据补全

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