构建可复现的东南亚影响力指数，量化各国综合实力与权力结构。
2025 Southeast Asia Eleven Nations Influence Index Report
- 用四维数据融合与三阶标准化处理，降低偏见并抗极端值
- 经济权重35-40%，军事20-25%，外交约20%，社会科技约15%
- 揭示印尼、新马领跑，泰菲越中段竞争格局，适合政策制定者参考
本研究构建了完全数据驱动且可复现的东南亚影响力指数（SAII v3），旨在减少专家评分与主观赋权带来的偏差，并揭示东盟十一国间的层级权力结构。整合经济、军事、外交、社会技术四大维度的权威开源指标，采用三阶段标准化流程（分位数-Box-Cox-最小最大值）以缓解异常值与偏态。权重通过熵权法（EWM）、CRITIC与主成分分析（PCA）等权重均值集成获得。通过肯德尔等级相关系数、±20%权重扰动、10,000次自助采样及±10%维度敏感性测试验证稳健性，并进行V2-V3版本对比。结果表明：经济权重35-40%，军事20-25%，外交约20%，社会技术约15%。区域格局呈现‘一强两中三稳多弱’特征：印尼、新加坡、马来西亚领先，泰国、菲律宾、越南构成中游竞争梯队。V2与V3排名高度一致（Kendall's tau = 0.818），但中层排序略有调整（泰、菲上升，越下降），说明v3对结构均衡更敏感。东盟-11平均敏感度显示，军事与社会技术维度边际影响最大（±0.002）。结论表明，SAII v3实现了算法赋权与可审计复现，揭示东南亚影响力的多维驱动机制，为地区政府与外部伙伴提供资源分配与政策优先级的量化依据。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
This study constructs a fully data-driven and reproducible Southeast Asia Influence Index (SAII v3) to reduce bias from expert scoring and subjective weighting while mapping hierarchical power structures across the eleven ASEAN nations. We aggregate authoritative open-source indicators across four dimensions (economic, military, diplomatic, socio-technological) and apply a three-tiered standardization chain quantile-Box-Cox-min-max to mitigate outliers and skewness. Weights are obtained through equal-weight integration of Entropy Weighting Method (EWM), CRITIC, and PCA. Robustness is assessed via Kendall's tau, +/-20% weight perturbation, and 10,000 bootstrap iterations, with additional checks including +/-10% dimensional sensitivity and V2-V3 bump chart comparisons. Results show integrated weights: Economy 35-40%, Military 20-25%, Diplomacy about 20%, Socio-Technology about 15%. The regional landscape exhibits a one-strong, two-medium, three-stable, and multiple-weak pattern: Indonesia, Singapore, and Malaysia lead, while Thailand, the Philippines, and Vietnam form a mid-tier competitive band. V2 and V3 rankings are highly consistent (Kendall's tau = 0.818), though small mid-tier reorderings appear (Thailand and the Philippines rise, Vietnam falls), indicating that v3 is more sensitive to structural equilibrium. ASEAN-11 average sensitivity highlights military and socio-technological dimensions as having the largest marginal effects (+/-0.002). In conclusion, SAII v3 delivers algorithmic weighting and auditable reproducibility, reveals multidimensional drivers of influence in Southeast Asia, and provides actionable quantitative evidence for resource allocation and policy prioritization by regional governments and external partners.
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