将生产工艺嵌入模型,提升制药冻干温度预测的准确性与可靠性。
Process-Informed Forecasting of Complex Thermal Dynamics in Pharmaceutical Manufacturing
- 用生产配方作为先验知识构建模型结构,增强物理一致性。
- 在噪声环境下仍保持高精度,较传统方法误差降低18%以上。
- 适合对安全性要求高的工业制造场景,支持跨产线迁移应用。
精确的时间序列预测是现代工业监测与控制的核心,但深度学习模型在受监管环境中常缺乏物理一致性。为弥补这一差距,我们提出面向制药冻干过程温度预测的流程感知建模(PIF),将确定性生产配方作为宏观结构先验。研究对比了经典方法(如ARIMA)与现代深度架构(如KAN),并测试三种集成流程先验的损失函数:固定权重损失、基于动态不确定性的损失和残差注意力机制(RBA)。评估不仅包含准确率与物理合理性,还涵盖传感器噪声下的鲁棒性。此外,在迁移学习场景下测试最优模型在新工艺上的泛化能力。结果表明,PIF模型在准确性、物理合理性及抗噪能力上均显著优于纯数据驱动方法,提供了一种可扩展、可靠且通用的制造预测框架。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate time-series forecasting for complex physical systems is the backbone of modern industrial monitoring and control, yet deep learning models often lack the physical consistency required in regulated environments.To bridge this gap, we introduce Process-Informed Forecasting (PIF) models for temperature in pharmaceutical lyophilization, embedding deterministic production recipes as macro-structural priors. We investigate classical methods (e.g., Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model) and modern deep learning architectures, including Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs). We compare three different loss function formulations that integrate a process-informed trajectory prior: a fixed-weight loss, a dynamic uncertainty-based loss, and a Residual-Based Attention (RBA) mechanism. We evaluate all models not only for accuracy and physical consistency but also for robustness to sensor noise. Furthermore, we test the practical generalizability of the best model in a transfer-learning scenario to a new process. Our results show that PIF models outperform their data-driven counterparts in terms of accuracy, physical plausibility and noise resilience, offering a scalable framework for reliable and generalizable forecasting solutions in critical manufacturing.
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