arXiv:2509.20422cs.LGphysics.ao-ph2025-09被引 4

用机器学习快速模拟臭氧变化,提升气候模型效率与精度

mloz: A Highly Efficient Machine Learning-Based Ozone Parameterization for Climate Sensitivity Simulations

  • 基于温度剖面输入,用机器学习替代复杂化学计算
  • 预测速度比原模型快31倍,仅占运行时间4%以内
  • 可在不同气候模型间迁移,适合关注气候敏感性的研究

大气臭氧是重要的太阳辐射吸收剂和温室气体,但多数参与耦合模型比较计划(CMIP)的气候模型因化学方案计算成本高而缺乏交互式臭氧表示。本文提出一种基于机器学习的参数化方案mloz,可交互式模拟对流层与平流层中每日臭氧变化及趋势,包含臭氧与准两年振荡的双向相互作用。该方法在十年尺度上表现高保真,在英国地球系统模型(UKESM)和德国ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic(ICON)模型中均实现在线灵活使用。仅以大气温度廓线为输入,mloz的预测速度比UKESM中的化学方案快约31倍,贡献运行时间不足4%。此外,成功将mloz从UKESM迁移至无化学模块的ICON模型,展示了其跨模型可移植性。该方法有望在缺乏交互化学过程的CMIP级气候模型中广泛应用,尤其适用于关注臭氧变化对大气反馈影响的气候敏感性模拟。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Atmospheric ozone is a crucial absorber of solar radiation and an important greenhouse gas. However, most climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) still lack an interactive representation of ozone due to the high computational costs of atmospheric chemistry schemes. Here, we introduce a machine learning parameterization (mloz) to interactively model daily ozone variability and trends across the troposphere and stratosphere in standard climate sensitivity simulations, including two-way interactions of ozone with the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. We demonstrate its high fidelity on decadal timescales and its flexible use online across two different climate models -- the UK Earth System Model (UKESM) and the German ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) model. With atmospheric temperature profile information as the only input, mloz produces stable ozone predictions around 31 times faster than the chemistry scheme in UKESM, contributing less than 4 percent of the respective total climate model runtimes. In particular, we also demonstrate its transferability to different climate models without chemistry schemes by transferring the parameterization from UKESM to ICON. This highlights the potential for widespread adoption in CMIP-level climate models that lack interactive chemistry for future climate change assessments, particularly when focusing on climate sensitivity simulations, where ozone trends and variability are known to significantly modulate atmospheric feedback processes.

机器学习气候模型臭氧模拟高效计算

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