用联邦学习提升重症监护中脓毒症早期预测,兼顾隐私与效果。
Improving Early Sepsis Onset Prediction Through Federated Learning
- 采用联邦注意力LSTM模型,在不共享数据前提下联合训练多中心ICU数据。
- 在长时预测窗口下表现更优,显著提升早期脓毒症识别能力。
- 支持可变预测时长,降低计算通信成本,适合跨机构医疗部署。
早期准确预测脓毒症发病仍是重症监护的重大挑战,及时检测与干预可显著改善患者预后。尽管机器学习模型在此领域展现出潜力,但其性能常受限于单个医院或重症监护室(ICU)可用的训练数据量和多样性。联邦学习(FL)通过允许多机构协作训练模型而无需共享原始数据,有效解决了这一问题,同时保护患者隐私。本文提出一种基于联邦学习的注意力增强型长短期记忆(LSTM)模型,用于脓毒症发病预测,训练数据来自多中心ICU。与依赖固定预测窗口的现有方法不同,本模型支持可变预测时长,可在单一统一模型中实现短时与长时预测。分析重点聚焦于模型在早期预测(即大预测窗口)上的改进,通过深入的时间序列分析验证。结果表明,联邦学习不仅整体性能接近集中式模型,更在早期脓毒症预测上具有显著优势。此外,采用可变预测窗口并未显著影响性能,反而大幅降低了计算、通信和组织协调开销。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Early and accurate prediction of sepsis onset remains a major challenge in intensive care, where timely detection and subsequent intervention can significantly improve patient outcomes. While machine learning models have shown promise in this domain, their success is often limited by the amount and diversity of training data available to individual hospitals and Intensive Care Units (ICUs). Federated Learning (FL) addresses this issue by enabling collaborative model training across institutions without requiring data sharing, thus preserving patient privacy. In this work, we propose a federated, attention-enhanced Long Short-Term Memory model for sepsis onset prediction, trained on multi-centric ICU data. Unlike existing approaches that rely on fixed prediction windows, our model supports variable prediction horizons, enabling both short- and long-term forecasting in a single unified model. During analysis, we put particular emphasis on the improvements through our approach in terms of early sepsis detection, i.e., predictions with large prediction windows by conducting an in-depth temporal analysis. Our results prove that using FL does not merely improve overall prediction performance (with performance approaching that of a centralized model), but is particularly beneficial for early sepsis onset prediction. Finally, we show that our choice of employing a variable prediction window rather than a fixed window does not hurt performance significantly but reduces computational, communicational, and organizational overhead.
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