建模气象与污染物因果关系,实现多区域多污染源精准预报
A Causality-Aware Spatiotemporal Model for Multi-Region and Multi-Pollutant Air Quality Forecasting
- 引入气象-污染因果建模,统一处理多区域多污染物时空动态
- 在多个真实数据集上优于现有方法,长期预测准确率提升显著
- 适合环境治理与碳减排规划人员使用,可识别高风险时段
空气污染是威胁公共健康、环境可持续性和气候稳定的全球性问题。由于多污染物相互作用复杂、气象条件持续变化以及区域空间异质性,实现跨监测站点的精准、可扩展预报极具挑战。为此,我们提出AirPCM,一种新颖的深度时空预测模型,将多区域、多污染物动态与显式的气象-污染物因果建模相结合。不同于仅限单一污染物或局部区域的方法,AirPCM采用统一架构,联合捕捉跨站点空间相关性、时间自相关性及气象-污染物动态因果关系。该模型可实现细粒度、可解释的多污染物跨地理和时间尺度预报,包括突发污染事件。在多尺度真实数据集上的广泛评估表明,AirPCM在预测精度和泛化能力上均持续超越当前最优基线。此外,其长时预报能力为未来空气质量趋势和潜在高风险窗口提供了可操作的洞察,有助于支持基于证据的环境治理与碳减排规划。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Air pollution, a pressing global problem, threatens public health, environmental sustainability, and climate stability. Achieving accurate and scalable forecasting across spatially distributed monitoring stations is challenging due to intricate multi-pollutant interactions, evolving meteorological conditions, and region specific spatial heterogeneity. To address this challenge, we propose AirPCM, a novel deep spatiotemporal forecasting model that integrates multi-region, multi-pollutant dynamics with explicit meteorology-pollutant causality modeling. Unlike existing methods limited to single pollutants or localized regions, AirPCM employs a unified architecture to jointly capture cross-station spatial correlations, temporal auto-correlations, and meteorology-pollutant dynamic causality. This empowers fine-grained, interpretable multi-pollutant forecasting across varying geographic and temporal scales, including sudden pollution episodes. Extensive evaluations on multi-scale real-world datasets demonstrate that AirPCM consistently surpasses state-of-the-art baselines in both predictive accuracy and generalization capability. Moreover, the long-term forecasting capability of AirPCM provides actionable insights into future air quality trends and potential high-risk windows, offering timely support for evidence-based environmental governance and carbon mitigation planning.
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