让大模型学会从医疗数据中反思推理,既准又可信。
Rethinking Explainable Disease Prediction: Synergizing Accuracy and Reliability via Reflective Cognitive Architecture
- 用迭代优化与统计校验双机制,让LLM从医疗表数据中自主学习逻辑。
- 在多个真实医疗数据集上,准确率超20个基线模型,抗噪声能力强。
- 适合医疗AI研发者和需要可解释决策的临床场景使用。
在临床决策中,预测模型常面临准确率与可解释性之间的权衡:高精度模型往往为难以理解的‘黑箱’,而可解释方法则常缺乏预测能力或统计基础。本文挑战这一二元对立,提出反射认知架构(RCA),使大语言模型(LLMs)能直接从表格数据中通过经验与反思学习。RCA融合两项核心机制:通过预测误差迭代优化逻辑推理规则,以及基于全局统计证据的规则校验,确保逻辑稳健性。我们在包括真实世界导管相关血栓(CRT)队列在内的多个医学数据集上,对比超过20种基线模型(涵盖传统机器学习、先进推理LLM及智能体)。关键的是,评估扩展至两个大规模数据集以验证实际可扩展性。结果表明,RCA在保持最先进预测性能的同时,显著提升对数据噪声的鲁棒性,并生成清晰、逻辑一致且有证据支持的解释,规模扩大后仍保持高效。代码已开源:https://github.com/ssssszj/RCA。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
In clinical decision-making, predictive models face a persistent trade-off: accurate models are often opaque "black boxes," while interpretable methods frequently lack predictive precision or statistical grounding. In this paper, we challenge this dichotomy, positing that high predictive accuracy and high-quality descriptive explanations are not competing goals but synergistic outcomes of a deep, first-hand understanding of data. We propose the Reflective Cognitive Architecture (RCA), a novel framework designed to enable Large Language Models (LLMs) to learn directly from tabular data through experience and reflection. RCA integrates two core mechanisms: an iterative rules optimization process that refines logical argumentation by learning from prediction errors, and a distribution-aware rules check that grounds this logic in global statistical evidence to ensure robustness. We evaluated RCA against over 20 baselines - ranging from traditional machine learning to advanced reasoning LLMs and agents - across diverse medical datasets, including a proprietary real-world Catheter-Related Thrombosis (CRT) cohort. Crucially, to demonstrate real-world scalability, we extended our evaluation to two large-scale datasets. The results confirm that RCA achieves state-of-the-art predictive performance and superior robustness to data noise while simultaneously generating clear, logical, and evidence-based explanatory statements, maintaining its efficacy even at scale. The code is available at https://github.com/ssssszj/RCA.
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