用1.3万智能体模拟校园应急,帮政策制定者优化预案。
What Makes LLM Agent Simulations Useful for Policy Practice? An Iterative Design Study in Emergency Preparedness
- 构建1.3万代理模拟校园人群流动与沟通
- 模拟未预测结果但提升培训与疏散效率
- 适合应急规划与公共政策实践者参考
政策制定者常需在高度不确定的环境中决策,如紧急响应,此时预先预测政策影响几乎不可能。大语言模型(LLM)代理模拟被提出作为支持工具,但其如何真正服务于实际政策仍不明确。为此,我们与高校应急准备团队开展为期一年、以利益相关方参与的设计过程。通过多轮迭代,开发并优化了一个大规模校园集会的LLM代理模拟,最终实现13,000个代理的仿真,涵盖不同紧急情境下的人群移动与信息传播。该模拟虽不提供预测性输出,却有效支撑了志愿者培训、疏散流程优化和基础设施规划。分析表明,使此类模拟对政策实践有用的关键设计启示包括:从可验证的情景出发建立信任;利用初步模拟挖掘领域隐性知识;将模拟能力与政策执行视为共同演进的过程。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Policymakers must often act under conditions of deep uncertainty, such as emergency response, where predicting the specific impacts of a policy apriori is implausible. Large Language Model (LLM) agent simulations have been proposed as tools to support policymakers under these conditions, yet little is known about how such simulations become useful for real-world policy practice. To address this gap, we conducted a year-long, stakeholder-engaged design process with a university emergency preparedness team. Through iterative design cycles, we developed and refined an LLM agent simulation of a large-scale campus gathering, ultimately scaling to 13,000 agents that modeled crowd movement and communication under various emergency scenarios. Rather than producing predictive forecasts, these simulations supported policy practice by shaping volunteer training, evacuation procedures, and infrastructure planning. Analyzing these findings, we identify three design process implications for making LLM agent simulations that are useful for policy practice: start from verifiable scenarios to bootstrap trust, use preliminary simulations to elicit tacit domain knowledge, and treat simulation capabilities and policy implementation as co-evolving.
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