新模型同时可视化交互与独立效应,提升可解释性与预测性能。
Multiplicative-Additive Constrained Models:Toward Joint Visualization of Interactive and Independent Effects
- 结合乘法与加法结构,分离特征交互与独立影响
- 神经网络版在预测上显著超越现有GAMs和CESR
- 适合需要高可解释性且追求强预测的医疗等场景
在医疗等高风险领域,可解释性是机器学习应用的关键考量。广义加性模型(GAMs)通过形状函数可视化增强可解释性,但为保持可读性,忽略超过成对的高阶交互效应,严重限制了预测能力。我们观察到乘法模型曲线遍历集回归(CESR)能自然可视化形状函数,并同时包含所有特征的交互与个体效应,但其性能未优于GAMs。为此,我们提出乘法-加法约束模型(MACMs),在CESR基础上增加加法部分,以解耦交互项与独立项的系数,有效扩展假设空间。该模型由乘法和加法两部分组成,其形状函数均可自然可视化,帮助用户理解特征如何参与决策。实验表明,基于神经网络的MACMs在预测性能上显著优于CESR和当前最优的GAMs。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Interpretability is one of the considerations when applying machine learning to high-stakes fields such as healthcare that involve matters of life safety. Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) enhance interpretability by visualizing shape functions. Nevertheless, to preserve interpretability, GAMs omit higher-order interaction effects (beyond pairwise interactions), which imposes significant constraints on their predictive performance. We observe that Curve Ergodic Set Regression (CESR), a multiplicative model, naturally enables the visualization of its shape functions and simultaneously incorporates both interactions among all features and individual feature effects. Nevertheless, CESR fails to demonstrate superior performance compared to GAMs. We introduce Multiplicative-Additive Constrained Models (MACMs), which augment CESR with an additive part to disentangle the intertwined coefficients of its interactive and independent terms, thus effectively broadening the hypothesis space. The model is composed of a multiplicative part and an additive part, whose shape functions can both be naturally visualized, thereby assisting users in interpreting how features participate in the decision-making process. Consequently, MACMs constitute an improvement over both CESR and GAMs. The experimental results indicate that neural network-based MACMs significantly outperform both CESR and the current state-of-the-art GAMs in terms of predictive performance.
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