arXiv:2509.22111cs.LGstat.AP2025-09

用混合类型贝叶斯网络分析排球运动员心理特征关联,助力教练科学育才。

Modeling Psychological Profiles in Volleyball via Mixed-Type Bayesian Networks

  • 融合潜变量高斯互信息与约束评分法,学习心理特质间因果关系
  • 在164名女运动员数据上,结构准确率优于最新耦合模型
  • 可量化技能提升如何影响自信与准备状态,适合运动心理决策

心理特质很少孤立存在:教练常基于相关特质的网络进行判断。我们分析了来自意大利C、D级联赛的164名女性排球运动员的新数据集,该数据集结合了标准化心理测评与背景信息。为学习混合类型变量(序数问卷得分、分类人口统计、连续指标)间的有向关系,提出潜变量MMHC,一种将潜变量高斯互信息与基于约束的骨架、约束评分优化相结合的混合结构学习方法,输出单一有向无环图(DAG)。还研究了自助聚合变体以提升稳定性。在涵盖样本量、稀疏性与维度的模拟实验中,潜变量最大最小爬山法(latent MMHC)的结构汉明距离更低,边召回率更高,同时保持高特异性。应用于排球数据,学习到的网络以目标设定和自信心为中心组织心理技能,情绪唤醒连接动机与焦虑,并发现大五人格特质(尤其是神经质与外向性)位于技能簇上游。情景分析量化了特定技能提升如何通过网络传导,影响准备状态、自信与自我价值感。该方法为体育领域心理特征建模提供可解释、数据驱动的框架,支持运动员发展决策。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Psychological attributes rarely operate in isolation: coaches reason about networks of related traits. We analyze a new dataset of 164 female volleyball players from Italy's C and D leagues that combines standardized psychological profiling with background information. To learn directed relationships among mixed-type variables (ordinal questionnaire scores, categorical demographics, continuous indicators), we introduce latent MMHC, a hybrid structure learner that couples a latent Gaussian copula and a constraint-based skeleton with a constrained score-based refinement to return a single DAG. We also study a bootstrap-aggregated variant for stability. In simulations spanning sample size, sparsity, and dimension, latent Max-Min Hill-Climbing (MMHC) attains lower structural Hamming distance and higher edge recall than recent copula-based learners while maintaining high specificity. Applied to volleyball, the learned network organizes mental skills around goal setting and self-confidence, with emotional arousal linking motivation and anxiety, and locates Big-Five traits (notably neuroticism and extraversion) upstream of skill clusters. Scenario analyses quantify how improvements in specific skills propagate through the network to shift preparation, confidence, and self-esteem. The approach provides an interpretable, data-driven framework for profiling psychological traits in sport and for decision support in athlete development.

心理建模贝叶斯网络运动员发展数据驱动

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