arXiv:2509.22760stat.MLcs.LG2025-09被引 4

用物理约束神经网络,从疫情数据中自动学出记忆效应强度和传播参数。

Identifying Memory Effects in Epidemics via a Fractional SEIRD Model and Physics-Informed Neural Networks

  • 将分数阶导数嵌入神经网络残差,同时学习记忆指数α和传播率等参数。
  • 在假想的猴痘数据上,噪声下仍能准确恢复α和参数;新冠数据表明α∈(0,1]更优。
  • 适合研究非马尔可夫疫情过程、需长期记忆建模的传染病预测与防控者。

我们构建了一个物理信息神经网络(PINN)框架,用于分数阶SEIRD流行病模型的参数估计。通过在网络残差中嵌入Caputo分数阶导数(采用L1离散化),该方法同时重建疫情轨迹,并推断流行病学参数(β, σ, γ, μ)及分数阶记忆指数α。分数阶形式通过捕捉疾病进展、潜伏和康复中的长程记忆效应,扩展了经典整数阶模型。我们的框架将α设为可训练参数,同步估计各类传播率。复合损失函数结合数据拟合误差、物理残差和初始条件,并施加正性与种群守恒约束,确保结果兼具准确性与生物学合理性。在合成猴痘数据上的测试显示,在噪声条件下仍能可靠恢复α和参数;对新冠数据的应用表明,最优α∈(0,1]能有效捕捉记忆效应,提升预测性能。本工作确立了PINNs在学习流行病动力学记忆效应中的鲁棒性,对预测、控制策略及非马尔可夫过程分析具有重要意义。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

We develop a physics-informed neural network (PINN) framework for parameter estimation in fractional-order SEIRD epidemic models. By embedding the Caputo fractional derivative into the network residuals via the L1 discretization scheme, our method simultaneously reconstructs epidemic trajectories and infers both epidemiological parameters and the fractional memory order $α$. The fractional formulation extends classical integer-order models by capturing long-range memory effects in disease progression, incubation, and recovery. Our framework learns the fractional memory order $α$ as a trainable parameter while simultaneously estimating the epidemiological rates $(β, σ, γ, μ)$. A composite loss combining data misfit, physics residuals, and initial conditions, with constraints on positivity and population conservation, ensures both accuracy and biological consistency. Tests on synthetic Mpox data confirm reliable recovery of $α$ and parameters under noise, while applications to COVID-19 show that optimal $α\in (0, 1]$ captures memory effects and improves predictive performance over the classical SEIRD model. This work establishes PINNs as a robust tool for learning memory effects in epidemic dynamics, with implications for forecasting, control strategies, and the analysis of non-Markovian epidemic processes.

传染病建模分数阶微分神经网络记忆效应

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