arXiv:2509.23128stat.MLcs.LG2025-09

提出统一的条件风险最小化框架,解决有限数据下的可靠决策问题。

Conditional Risk Minimization with Side Information: A Tractable, Universal Optimal Transport Framework

  • 基于最优传输的联合球体公式,统一现有方法并揭示其内在联系。
  • 对几乎所有主流风险函数都能转化为凸优化问题,计算高效可解。
  • 适用于大规模条件风险场景,如金融组合优化,效果优于传统方法。

条件风险最小化在高风险决策中至关重要,需结合外部信息(如经济压力、客户画像)评估风险。从有限数据构建可靠条件分布极具挑战,现有基于最优传输的方法存在碎片化、依赖点估计或结构假设、适用范围窄等问题。本文提出一种通用的分布鲁棒条件风险最小化框架,基于最优传输中的新型联合球体形式。该框架具备三大优势:可解释性(涵盖已有方法并揭示深层关联)、可计算性(对文献中几乎所有主要风险函数均能给出凸重构)、可扩展性(支持割平面算法处理大规模条件风险问题)。在基于排序依赖期望效用的组合优化应用中,条件模型收敛至最优解,而无条件模型明显失效。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Conditional risk minimization arises in high-stakes decisions where risk must be assessed in light of side information, such as stressed economic conditions, specific customer profiles, or other contextual covariates. Constructing reliable conditional distributions from limited data is notoriously difficult, motivating a series of optimal-transport-based proposals that address this uncertainty in a distributionally robust manner. Yet these approaches remain fragmented, each constrained by its own limitations: some rely on point estimates or restrictive structural assumptions, others apply only to narrow classes of risk measures, and their structural connections are unclear. We introduce a universal framework for distributionally robust conditional risk minimization, built on a novel union-ball formulation in optimal transport. This framework offers three key advantages: interpretability, by subsuming existing methods as special cases and revealing their deep structural links; tractability, by yielding convex reformulations for virtually all major risk functionals studied in the literature; and scalability, by supporting cutting-plane algorithms for large-scale conditional risk problems. Applications to portfolio optimization with rank-dependent expected utility highlight the practical effectiveness of the framework, with conditional models converging to optimal solutions where unconditional ones clearly do not.

风险最小化最优传输金融优化

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