不补全缺失值,直接预测多变量时间序列。
Revisiting Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Missing Values
- 跳过补全步骤,直接从部分观测数据中学习预测。
- 在高缺失率下仍保持准确,4个真实数据集表现优异。
- 新框架CRIB用一致性正则化提升鲁棒性,适合工业场景。
真实世界的时间序列常含缺失值,多变量时间序列预测中缺失值(MTSF-M)已成为确保预测可靠性的重要研究方向。现有方法采用‘先补全再预测’框架,通过补全模块填充缺失值后进行预测,但该框架忽视了关键问题:缺失值无真实标签,补全过程易引入误差,反而降低预测精度。本文通过系统实证研究发现,无监督补全会扭曲数据分布并损害预测性能。为此,我们提出范式转变——摒弃补全,直接从部分观测数据中预测。提出基于信息瓶颈原理的统一变量子注意力与一致性正则化框架(CRIB),通过联合机制过滤缺失值带来的噪声,同时保留关键预测信号。在四个真实世界数据集上的大量实验表明,即使在高缺失率下,CRIB仍能实现高精度预测。代码已开源:https://github.com/Muyiiiii/CRIB。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Missing values are common in real-world time series, and multivariate time series forecasting with missing values (MTSF-M) has become a crucial area of research for ensuring reliable predictions. To address the challenge of missing data, current approaches have developed an imputation-then-prediction framework that uses imputation modules to fill in missing values, followed by forecasting on the imputed data. However, this framework overlooks a critical issue: there is no ground truth for the missing values, making the imputation process susceptible to errors that can degrade prediction accuracy. In this paper, we conduct a systematic empirical study and reveal that imputation without direct supervision can corrupt the underlying data distribution and actively degrade prediction accuracy. To address this, we propose a paradigm shift that moves away from imputation and directly predicts from the partially observed time series. We introduce Consistency-Regularized Information Bottleneck (CRIB), a novel framework built on the Information Bottleneck principle. CRIB combines a unified-variate attention mechanism with a consistency regularization scheme to learn robust representations that filter out noise introduced by missing values while preserving essential predictive signals. Comprehensive experiments on four real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of CRIB, which predicts accurately even under high missing rates. Our code is available in https://github.com/Muyiiiii/CRIB.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。