arXiv:2509.25017cs.LGcs.CV2025-09被引 5

提出融合模型与数据不确定性的深度学习框架,提升野火危险预报的准确性与可信度。

Uncertainty-Aware Deep Learning for Wildfire Danger Forecasting

  • 联合建模模型不确定性与数据不确定性,增强预测可靠性。
  • 次日预报F1分数提升2.3%,校准误差降低2.1%。
  • 可生成带置信度图层的野火风险地图,适用于决策支持。

野火是严重自然灾害之一,对人类与生态系统构成重大威胁。随着野火风险上升,对既准确又可靠的预测模型需求增加。深度学习在野火危险预测中展现出潜力,但其应用受限于预测结果的可靠性问题,部分源于缺乏不确定性量化。为此,本文提出一种不确定性感知的深度学习框架,同时捕捉认知不确定性(模型)与随机不确定性(数据),以提升短期野火危险预报能力。在次日预报中,最优模型相较确定性基线提升F1分数2.3%,预期校准误差降低2.1%,显著改善预测性能与校准性。实验验证了不确定性估计的可靠性,并展示了其在决策支持中的实用性,包括设定低置信度预测的拒绝阈值、生成带有不确定性层的精准野火危险地图。将预报周期扩展至十天,发现随机不确定性随时间增长,反映环境条件变化加剧,而认知不确定性保持稳定。最后表明,在高不确定性场景下,两类不确定性提供互补信息,联合建模对鲁棒预测至关重要。总体而言,该方法显著提升了野火危险预报的准确性与可信度,推动可信赖野火深度学习系统的发展。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Wildfires are among the most severe natural hazards, posing a significant threat to both humans and natural ecosystems. The growing risk of wildfires increases the demand for forecasting models that are not only accurate but also reliable. Deep Learning (DL) has shown promise in predicting wildfire danger; however, its adoption is hindered by concerns over the reliability of its predictions, some of which stem from the lack of uncertainty quantification. To address this challenge, we present an uncertainty-aware DL framework that jointly captures epistemic (model) and aleatoric (data) uncertainty to enhance short-term wildfire danger forecasting. In the next-day forecasting, our best-performing model improves the F1 Score by 2.3% and reduces the Expected Calibration Error by 2.1% compared to a deterministic baseline, enhancing both predictive skill and calibration. Our experiments confirm the reliability of the uncertainty estimates and illustrate their practical utility for decision support, including the identification of uncertainty thresholds for rejecting low-confidence predictions and the generation of well-calibrated wildfire danger maps with accompanying uncertainty layers. Extending the forecast horizon up to ten days, we observe that aleatoric uncertainty increases with time, showing greater variability in environmental conditions, while epistemic uncertainty remains stable. Finally, we show that although the two uncertainty types may be redundant in low-uncertainty cases, they provide complementary insights under more challenging conditions, underscoring the value of their joint modeling for robust wildfire danger prediction. In summary, our approach significantly improves the accuracy and reliability of wildfire danger forecasting, advancing the development of trustworthy wildfire DL systems.

野火预测不确定性量化深度学习

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