arXiv:2509.25112cs.AIcs.MA2025-09

用AI从海量论文中发现热浪连锁风险的生物生态放大机制。

AI Driven Discovery of Bio Ecological Mediation in Cascading Heatwave Risks

  • 构建8111篇论文的知识图谱,识别7万多个证据节点。
  • 发现生物系统是热应力放大的关键非线性因素,提升风险预测准确率。
  • 适合气候风险、跨系统韧性研究者,助力动态防御策略设计。

复合热浪正引发通过物理与人类系统相互连接而传播的复杂级联失效,但学科知识碎片化阻碍了对这些系统性风险拓扑结构的全面映射。本研究提出自主科学合成框架Heatwave Discovery Agent(HeDA),从8,111篇学术文献中构建高保真知识图谱,整合70,297个证据节点。该系统在复杂推理任务中展现出优于GPT 5.2和Claude Sonnet 4.5的标准基础模型的推断保真度。拓扑分析揭示出关键的生物生态中介效应:生物系统作为热应力的主要非线性放大器,将气象物理危害转化为系统性社会经济损失。此外,还发现理论上不同的部门间存在潜在功能耦合,如热浪引发电网故障同步与应急医疗能力饱和。研究阐明了复合气候风险的演化机制,并为从静态单部门防御转向动态跨系统韧性适应策略提供了实证依据。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Compound heatwaves increasingly trigger complex cascading failures that propagate through interconnected physical and human systems, yet the fragmentation of disciplinary knowledge hinders the comprehensive mapping of these systemic risk topologies. This study introduces the Heatwave Discovery Agent HeDA as an autonomous scientific synthesis framework designed to bridge cognitive gaps by constructing a high fidelity knowledge graph from 8,111 academic publications. By structuring 70,297 evidence nodes, the system exhibits enhanced inferential fidelity in capturing long tail risk mechanisms and achieves a significant accuracy margin compared to standard foundation models including GPT 5.2 and Claude Sonnet 4.5 in complex reasoning tasks. The resulting topological analysis reveals a critical bio ecological mediation effect where biological systems function as the primary non linear amplifiers of thermal stress that transform physical meteorological hazards into systemic socioeconomic losses. We further identify latent functional couplings between theoretically distinct sectors such as the heat induced synchronization of power grid failures and emergency medical capacity saturation. These findings elucidate the dynamics of compound climate risks and provide an empirical basis for shifting adaptation strategies from static sectoral defense to dynamic cross system resilience.

气候风险知识图谱生物生态系统韧性

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