arXiv:2509.25226cs.LGmath.OC2025-09被引 9

融合风光波能的智能预测框架,自动优化分解与建模,提升海上能源系统预测精度。

Integrated Forecasting of Marine Renewable Power: An Adaptively Bayesian-Optimized MVMD-LSTM Framework for Wind-Solar-Wave Energy

  • 用多变量变分模态分解联合处理多种能源数据,保留源间耦合关系
  • 通过贝叶斯优化自动确定分解参数,减少人工调参,提升模型鲁棒性
  • 在真实海上平台数据上表现优于基准模型,适合实际部署的能源调度系统

海上风-光-波一体化能源系统在近海和沿海地区具有广阔前景,可利用多源能量的时空互补性缓解单一能源输出的间歇性与波动性,显著提升发电效率与资源利用率。精准的超短期预测对保障安全运行和优化主动调度至关重要。然而,现有方法通常为各能源分别建模,未能充分考虑多能源间的复杂耦合,难以捕捉系统的非线性与非平稳动态,且普遍依赖大量人工参数调优,制约了预测性能与实用性。本文提出一种贝叶斯优化的多变量变分模态分解-长短期记忆(MVMD-LSTM)框架。该框架首先使用MVMD联合分解风、光、波功率序列,以保持源间耦合;采用贝叶斯优化自动搜索MVMD中的模态数与惩罚参数,获取本征模态函数(IMFs);最后由LSTM对所得IMFs建模,实现一体化系统的超短期功率预测。基于中国某海上综合能源平台的实测数据实验表明,所提框架在MAPE、RMSE和MAE指标上均显著优于基准模型,展现出更高的预测精度、鲁棒性与自动化程度。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Integrated wind-solar-wave marine energy systems hold broad promise for supplying clean electricity in offshore and coastal regions. By leveraging the spatiotemporal complementarity of multiple resources, such systems can effectively mitigate the intermittency and volatility of single-source outputs, thereby substantially improving overall power-generation efficiency and resource utilization. Accurate ultra-short-term forecasting is crucial for ensuring secure operation and optimizing proactive dispatch. However, most existing forecasting methods construct separate models for each energy source, insufficiently account for the complex couplings among multiple energies, struggle to capture the system's nonlinear and nonstationary dynamics, and typically depend on extensive manual parameter tuning-limitations that constrain both predictive performance and practicality. We address this issue using a Bayesian-optimized Multivariate Variational Mode Decomposition-Long Short-Term Memory (MVMD-LSTM) framework. The framework first applies MVMD to jointly decompose wind, solar and wave power series so as to preserve cross-source couplings; it uses Bayesian optimization to automatically search the number of modes and the penalty parameter in the MVMD process to obtain intrinsic mode functions (IMFs); finally, an LSTM models the resulting IMFs to achieve ultra-short-term power forecasting for the integrated system. Experiments based on field measurements from an offshore integrated energy platform in China show that the proposed framework significantly outperforms benchmark models in terms of MAPE, RMSE and MAE. The results demonstrate superior predictive accuracy, robustness, and degree of automation.

能源预测多源融合贝叶斯优化LSTM

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