arXiv:2509.25263cs.LGcs.AI2025-09被引 2

构建首个针对降雨短时预报的综合基准,填补气象时间序列模型评估空白。

How Effective Are Time-Series Models for Precipitation Nowcasting? A Comprehensive Benchmark for GNSS-based Precipitation Nowcasting

  • 基于全球140+个GNSS站数据,构建包含水汽含量的高精度降雨预报基准
  • 在6小时预测范围内验证17个模型,发现多数现有方法在零值稀疏场景下表现不佳
  • 提出可插拔的BFPF模块,有效提升对极端降雨和时间衰减的建模能力

降雨短时预报(0-6小时)对防灾减灾和实时响应至关重要。然而,现有气象时间序列基准多聚焦于温度、湿度等具有强周期性的变量,难以反映模型在复杂且实际的降雨预报任务中的性能。为此,本文提出RainfallBench,一个专为降雨短时预报设计的基准,该任务具有零膨胀、时间衰减和非平稳性等挑战特征。数据集基于五年内全球140多个全球导航卫星系统(GNSS)站点的小时级观测,涵盖六种关键变量,特别引入了可降水汽(PWV),这是其他数据集所缺乏的关键指标。我们还设计了专门的评估协议,用于检验模型在多尺度、多分辨率预测及极端降雨事件中的表现,并在六个主流架构上对17个先进模型进行了基准测试。此外,针对现有模型忽略的零膨胀与时间衰减问题,我们提出一种即插即用的双焦点降雨预报器(BFPF),融合领域先验知识以增强时间序列建模。统计分析与消融实验验证了数据集的全面性以及方法的有效性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Precipitation Nowcasting, which aims to predict precipitation within the next 0 to 6 hours, is critical for disaster mitigation and real-time response planning. However, most time series forecasting benchmarks in meteorology are evaluated on variables with strong periodicity, such as temperature and humidity, which fail to reflect model capabilities in more complex and practically meteorology scenarios like precipitation nowcasting. To address this gap, we propose RainfallBench, a benchmark designed for precipitation nowcasting, a highly challenging and practically relevant task characterized by zero inflation, temporal decay, and non-stationarity, focusing on predicting precipitation within the next 0 to 6 hours. The dataset is derived from five years of meteorological observations, recorded at hourly intervals across six essential variables, and collected from more than 140 Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations globally. In particular, it incorporates precipitable water vapor (PWV), a crucial indicator of rainfall that is absent in other datasets. We further design specialized evaluation protocols to assess model performance on key meteorological challenges, including multi-scale prediction, multi-resolution forecasting, and extreme rainfall events, benchmarking 17 state-of-the-art models across six major architectures on RainfallBench. Additionally, to address the zero-inflation and temporal decay issues overlooked by existing models, we introduce Bi-Focus Precipitation Forecaster (BFPF), a plug-and-play module that incorporates domain-specific priors to enhance rainfall time series forecasting. Statistical analysis and ablation studies validate the comprehensiveness of our dataset as well as the superiority of our methodology.

降雨预报时间序列GNSS零膨胀

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