arXiv:2509.25588stat.MLcs.LG2025-09

提出风险分数保守决策方法,提升分类可靠性。

Conservative Decisions with Risk Scores

  • 基于风险分数设定拒决区间,区间外精准分类
  • 最小化分类边界,实现最优拒决策略
  • 生成风险覆盖曲线,支持全面模型评估

在二分类应用中,允许拒决的保守决策具有优势。本文提出一种新方法,确定风险分数的最优拒决区间,该区间可直接获得或由拟合模型推导得出。在区间内算法拒绝决策,在区间外则最大化分类准确率。该方法受支持向量机启发,但不同于传统SVM最大化分类间隔,而是最小化间隔。我们给出了该问题的理论最优解,具有重要实际意义。所提方法不仅支持保守决策,还天然生成风险-覆盖率曲线。结合曲线下面积(AUC),该曲线可作为评估和比较分类器的综合性能指标,类似受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线。通过模拟研究和前列腺癌诊断的实际案例,验证并展示了该方法的有效性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In binary classification applications, conservative decision-making that allows for abstention can be advantageous. To this end, we introduce a novel approach that determines the optimal cutoff interval for risk scores, which can be directly available or derived from fitted models. Within this interval, the algorithm refrains from making decisions, while outside the interval, classification accuracy is maximized. Our approach is inspired by support vector machines (SVM), but differs in that it minimizes the classification margin rather than maximizing it. We provide the theoretical optimal solution to this problem, which holds important practical implications. Our proposed method not only supports conservative decision-making but also inherently results in a risk-coverage curve. Together with the area under the curve (AUC), this curve can serve as a comprehensive performance metric for evaluating and comparing classifiers, akin to the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. To investigate and illustrate our approach, we conduct both simulation studies and a real-world case study in the context of diagnosing prostate cancer.

分类决策风险评分保守预测

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