用不确定性量化预测提升能源调度决策,更智能地应对未来电价与碳排放波动。
Signal-Aware Workload Shifting Algorithms with Uncertainty-Quantified Predictors
- 引入决策不确定性得分,融合预测的不确定性信息优化调度策略。
- 在碳强度与电价数据上实验显示,性能优于传统鲁棒基线和忽略不确定性的方法。
- 适合关注绿色能源调度、需实时响应外部信号的研究者与系统设计者。
众多可持续性与电网集成策略依赖工作负载调度,将用电时间与电网限电事件、碳强度或分时电价等外部信号对齐。问题核心在于在线决策:操作员需在未知未来的情况下实时决定是否立即用电。尽管信号值的预测通常可用,但现有学习增强型在线算法几乎仅依赖简单的点预测。与此同时,预测研究在不确定性量化(UQ)方面取得显著进展,提供更丰富精细的预测信息。本文研究如何利用带有不确定性量化的预测来改进在线工作负载调度。提出 $ exttt{UQ-Advice}$ 算法,通过引入“决策不确定性得分”系统性整合 UQ 预测,衡量预测不确定性对最优未来决策的影响。定义“UQ鲁棒性”新指标,刻画性能随预测不确定性下降的程度,建立 $ exttt{UQ-Advice}$ 的理论性能保证。基于碳强度与电价数据的轨迹驱动实验表明,$ exttt{UQ-Advice}$ 持续优于鲁棒基线及忽略不确定性的现有学习增强方法。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
A wide range of sustainability and grid-integration strategies depend on workload shifting, which aligns the timing of energy consumption with external signals such as grid curtailment events, carbon intensity, or time-of-use electricity prices. The main challenge lies in the online nature of the problem: operators must make real-time decisions (e.g., whether to consume energy now) without knowledge of the future. While forecasts of signal values are typically available, prior work on learning-augmented online algorithms has relied almost exclusively on simple point forecasts. In parallel, the forecasting research has made significant progress in uncertainty quantification (UQ), which provides richer and more fine-grained predictive information. In this paper, we study how online workload shifting can leverage UQ predictors to improve decision-making. We introduce $\texttt{UQ-Advice}$, a learning-augmented algorithm that systematically integrates UQ forecasts through a $\textit{decision uncertainty score}$ that measures how forecast uncertainty affects optimal future decisions. By introducing $\textit{UQ-robustness}$, a new metric that characterizes how performance degrades with forecast uncertainty, we establish theoretical performance guarantees for $\texttt{UQ-Advice}$. Finally, using trace-driven experiments on carbon intensity and electricity price data, we demonstrate that $\texttt{UQ-Advice}$ consistently outperforms robust baselines and existing learning-augmented methods that ignore uncertainty.
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