arXiv:2510.00014cs.SIcs.LG2025-10被引 1

通过时间同步发现金融行为社区,揭示了企业间隐性关联模式。

FTSCommDetector: Discovering Behavioral Communities through Temporal Synchronization

  • 采用双尺度编码与动态注意力机制捕捉时序一致性
  • 在四大市场实现3.5%至11.1%的性能提升
  • 适合量化投资与风险管理场景使用

为何万亿级科技巨头苹果(AAPL)与微软(MSFT)在市场动荡中表现出截然不同的响应模式,尽管属于同一行业?这一悖论揭示了传统社区检测方法的局限:无法捕捉实体在独立运动中仍能在关键时刻对齐的同步-异步模式。为此,我们提出FTSCommDetector,基于时间一致性架构(TCA),从连续多变量时间序列中发现相似与相异的社区。与独立处理每个时间戳导致社区分配不稳定、遗漏演化关系的方法不同,本方法通过双尺度编码与静态拓扑结合动态注意力维持时序连贯性。此外,我们建立信息论基础,证明尺度分离可最大化互补信息,并引入归一化时间轮廓(NTP)实现尺度不变评估。实验表明,FTSCommDetector在四个不同金融市场(SP100、SP500、SP1000、Nikkei 225)中均取得一致改进,相比最强基线提升3.5%至11.1%。模型在60至120天窗口大小下仅出现2%性能波动,无需针对数据集调参,为组合构建与风险管控提供实用洞见。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Why do trillion-dollar tech giants AAPL and MSFT diverge into different response patterns during market disruptions despite identical sector classifications? This paradox reveals a fundamental limitation: traditional community detection methods fail to capture synchronization-desynchronization patterns where entities move independently yet align during critical moments. To this end, we introduce FTSCommDetector, implementing our Temporal Coherence Architecture (TCA) to discover similar and dissimilar communities in continuous multivariate time series. Unlike existing methods that process each timestamp independently, causing unstable community assignments and missing evolving relationships, our approach maintains coherence through dual-scale encoding and static topology with dynamic attention. Furthermore, we establish information-theoretic foundations demonstrating how scale separation maximizes complementary information and introduce Normalized Temporal Profiles (NTP) for scale-invariant evaluation. As a result, FTSCommDetector achieves consistent improvements across four diverse financial markets (SP100, SP500, SP1000, Nikkei 225), with gains ranging from 3.5% to 11.1% over the strongest baselines. The method demonstrates remarkable robustness with only 2% performance variation across window sizes from 60 to 120 days, making dataset-specific tuning unnecessary, providing practical insights for portfolio construction and risk management.

时间序列社区发现金融建模

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