arXiv:2510.00029eess.IVcs.AI2025-10被引 1

让眼科模型学会说‘不确定’,拒绝低信度诊断,提升安全性。

Enhancing Safety in Diabetic Retinopathy Detection: Uncertainty-Aware Deep Learning Models with Rejection Capabilities

  • 引入不确定性感知机制,低信度预测自动拒绝
  • 在保持高准确率的同时,拒绝率提升至35.6%
  • 适合临床诊断等对安全要求高的场景

糖尿病视网膜病变(DR)是导致视力损伤的主要原因,及时准确的诊断对治疗至关重要。深度学习模型在从眼底图像中识别DR方面已取得显著成效。然而,仅依赖模型输出而缺乏置信度指示,在临床中会带来重大风险。本文研究了一种不确定性感知的深度学习模型,结合可选性拒绝机制,以支持临床中的延迟决策策略。结果表明,预测覆盖范围与可靠性之间存在权衡。采用变分贝叶斯方法的模型采取更保守的策略,主动拒绝不确定性高的预测。通过准确率(accepted predictions accuracy)、接受率(coverage)、拒绝率(rejection-ratio)和期望校准误差(ECE)等关键指标评估,发现不确定性估计与选择性拒绝能显著提升模型在安全敏感诊断任务中的可靠性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is a major cause of visual impairment, and effective treatment options depend heavily on timely and accurate diagnosis. Deep learning models have demonstrated great success identifying DR from retinal images. However, relying only on predictions made by models, without any indication of model confidence, creates uncertainty and poses significant risk in clinical settings. This paper investigates an alternative in uncertainty-aware deep learning models, including a rejection mechanism to reject low-confidence predictions, contextualized by deferred decision-making in clinical practice. The results show there is a trade-off between prediction coverage and coverage reliability. The Variational Bayesian model adopted a more conservative strategy when predicting DR, subsequently rejecting the uncertain predictions. The model is evaluated by means of important performance metrics such as Accuracy on accepted predictions, the proportion of accepted cases (coverage), the rejection-ratio, and Expected Calibration Error (ECE). The findings also demonstrate a clear trade-off between accuracy and caution, establishing that the use of uncertainty estimation and selective rejection improves the model's reliability in safety-critical diagnostic use cases.

医学影像不确定性建模安全诊断

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