arXiv:2510.00087stat.APcs.LG2025-10被引 2

用神经跳跃微分方程分析婴儿肠道菌群抗生素异常,发现二次用药后紊乱持续更久。

Revealing the temporal dynamics of antibiotic anomalies in the infant gut microbiome with neural jump ODEs

  • 基于神经跳跃微分方程建模不规则时间序列的动态变化
  • 识别出抗生素使用后菌群异常持续时间延长,尤其在第二年暴露更显著
  • 可预测抗生素事件,适合研究儿童微生物组干预时机

检测不规则采样多变量时间序列中的异常具有挑战性,尤其是在数据稀疏场景下。本文提出一种基于神经跳跃常微分方程(NJODE)的异常检测框架,能够全路径依赖地推断条件均值与方差轨迹,并计算异常得分。在包含跳跃、漂移、扩散和噪声异常的合成数据上,该方法准确识别多种偏离模式。应用于婴儿肠道菌群轨迹时,揭示了抗生素引起的扰动幅度与持续时间:二次用药后异常持续更久,长期治疗及生命第二年内暴露导致影响更显著。进一步证明推断出的异常得分能有效预测抗生素事件,优于基于多样性指标的基线方法。该方法支持不等间距纵向观测,可调整静态与动态协变量,为推断扰动引发的微生物异常提供基础,有助于优化干预方案以减少微生物组干扰。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Detecting anomalies in irregularly sampled multi-variate time-series is challenging, especially in data-scarce settings. Here we introduce an anomaly detection framework for irregularly sampled time-series that leverages neural jump ordinary differential equations (NJODEs). The method infers conditional mean and variance trajectories in a fully path dependent way and computes anomaly scores. On synthetic data containing jump, drift, diffusion, and noise anomalies, the framework accurately identifies diverse deviations. Applied to infant gut microbiome trajectories, it delineates the magnitude and persistence of antibiotic-induced disruptions: revealing prolonged anomalies after second antibiotic courses, extended duration treatments, and exposures during the second year of life. We further demonstrate the predictive capabilities of the inferred anomaly scores in accurately predicting antibiotic events and outperforming diversity-based baselines. Our approach accommodates unevenly spaced longitudinal observations, adjusts for static and dynamic covariates, and provides a foundation for inferring microbial anomalies induced by perturbations, offering a translational opportunity to optimize intervention regimens by minimizing microbial disruptions.

微生物组时间序列异常检测神经ODE

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