用物理约束的连续模型,高效预测百个机器人长期运动轨迹。
Physics-Informed Neural Controlled Differential Equations for Scalable Long Horizon Multi-Agent Motion Forecasting
- 基于神经控制微分方程,在连续时间建模多机运动动态。
- 100机器人场景下1分钟预测平均ADE低于0.5米,4分钟误差降2.7倍。
- 支持长时序、可扩展,适合自动驾驶与群体仿真场景。
多智能体长时间运动预测因非线性交互、误差累积和动态连续演化而具有挑战性。学习此类系统的动力学对行程时间预测、规划引导及生成模拟等应用有重要意义。本文提出基于神经控制微分方程(CDEs)的物理信息模型PINCoDE,用于条件化多智能体目标的长期轨迹预测。与RNN、Transformer等离散时间方法不同,神经CDE在连续时间运行,可融合物理约束与先验知识,联合建模多机器人动态。模型从初始状态出发,通过学习微分方程参数预测整体轨迹,并以未来目标为条件,同时施加机器人运动的物理约束。所提方法可从10个机器人扩展至100个,无需增加模型参数,在1分钟预测时平均ADE低于0.5米。采用渐进式课程学习训练后,4分钟预测的位姿误差相比解析模型降低2.7倍。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Long-horizon motion forecasting for multiple autonomous robots is challenging due to non-linear agent interactions, compounding prediction errors, and continuous-time evolution of dynamics. Learned dynamics of such a system can be useful in various applications such as travel time prediction, prediction-guided planning and generative simulation. In this work, we aim to develop an efficient trajectory forecasting model conditioned on multi-agent goals. Motivated by the recent success of physics-guided deep learning for partially known dynamical systems, we develop a model based on neural Controlled Differential Equations (CDEs) for long-horizon motion forecasting. Unlike discrete-time methods such as RNNs and transformers, neural CDEs operate in continuous time, allowing us to combine physics-informed constraints and biases to jointly model multi-robot dynamics. Our approach, named PINCoDE (Physics-Informed Neural Controlled Differential Equations), learns differential equation parameters that can be used to predict the trajectories of a multi-agent system starting from an initial condition. PINCoDE is conditioned on future goals and enforces physics constraints for robot motion over extended periods of time. We adopt a strategy that scales our model from 10 robots to 100 robots without the need for additional model parameters, while producing predictions with an average ADE below 0.5 m for a 1-minute horizon. Furthermore, progressive training with curriculum learning for our PINCoDE model results in a 2.7X reduction of forecasted pose error over 4 minute horizons compared to analytical models.
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