将时间序列分解为静态与动态成分,提升预测鲁棒性。
TimeEmb: A Lightweight Static-Dynamic Disentanglement Framework for Time Series Forecasting
- 用全局嵌入模块捕捉长期不变特征,频域滤波处理变化趋势。
- 在真实数据集上超越现有方法,且计算开销更低。
- 框架轻量易集成,适合需要抗分布漂移的场景。
时间非平稳性导致时间序列分布随时间变化,给可靠预测带来根本挑战。直观上,复杂时间序列可分解为时不变(静态)和时变(动态)两部分。但现有方法常混淆两者,联合学习长期模式与短期波动,导致面对分布偏移时性能不佳。为此,我们提出轻量级静态-动态解耦框架TimeEmb:(1) 通过新型全局嵌入模块学习跨时间序列的持久表征;(2) 借鉴信号处理中的全谱分析思想,采用高效频域滤波机制处理时变成分。在真实数据集上的实验表明,TimeEmb优于现有最先进基线,且所需计算资源更少。我们通过定量与定性分析验证了静态-动态解耦的有效性。该轻量框架可简单集成至现有预测模型中以提升性能。代码已开源:https://github.com/showmeon/TimeEmb。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Temporal non-stationarity, the phenomenon that time series distributions change over time, poses fundamental challenges to reliable time series forecasting. Intuitively, the complex time series can be decomposed into two factors, \ie time-invariant and time-varying components, which indicate static and dynamic patterns, respectively. Nonetheless, existing methods often conflate the time-varying and time-invariant components, and jointly learn the combined long-term patterns and short-term fluctuations, leading to suboptimal performance facing distribution shifts. To address this issue, we initiatively propose a lightweight static-dynamic decomposition framework, TimeEmb, for time series forecasting. TimeEmb innovatively separates time series into two complementary components: (1) time-invariant component, captured by a novel global embedding module that learns persistent representations across time series, and (2) time-varying component, processed by an efficient frequency-domain filtering mechanism inspired by full-spectrum analysis in signal processing. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that TimeEmb outperforms state-of-the-art baselines and requires fewer computational resources. We conduct comprehensive quantitative and qualitative analyses to verify the efficacy of static-dynamic disentanglement. This lightweight framework can also improve existing time-series forecasting methods with simple integration. To ease reproducibility, the code is available at https://github.com/showmeon/TimeEmb.
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