用结构因果方程改进鲁棒优化的不确定性集,更真实且计算更快。
Designing Ambiguity Sets for Distributionally Robust Optimization Using Structural Causal Optimal Transport
- 融合因果图与结构方程设计不确定性集,提升分布真实性。
- 引入正则化简化约束,用凸差规划实现高效求解。
- 无需完整因果信息仍有效,且维度无关地快速收缩集合。
分布鲁棒优化通过在一组可能的数据分布(即不确定性集)上采用对抗性策略来应对样本外问题,如过拟合和分布偏移。为平衡保守性与准确性,不确定性集需基于名义分布的合理信息构建。以往方法(如适配型和G-因果最优传输)仅利用因果图信息设计不确定性集。本文提出将包含因果图信息的结构方程纳入其中,构建更真实的分布。我们提出结构因果最优传输及其不确定性集,证明其优势与现有方法的联系。关键创新在于引入正则化版本,以替代复杂因果约束,通过凸差规划实现高效算法求解。当结构信息缺失需估计时,该方法依然有效,并提供有限样本保证。此外,我们分析了不确定性集的半径,表明该方法可克服最优传输中的维度诅咒,实现维度无关的快速收缩,收敛阶数不随维度增长。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Distributionally robust optimization tackles out-of-sample issues like overfitting and distribution shifts by adopting an adversarial approach over a range of possible data distributions, known as the ambiguity set. To balance conservatism and accuracy, these sets must include realistic probability distributions by leveraging information from the nominal distribution. Assuming that nominal distributions arise from a structural causal model with a directed acyclic graph $\mathcal{G}$ and structural equations, previous methods such as adapted and $\mathcal{G}$-causal optimal transport have only utilized causal graph information in designing ambiguity sets. In this work, we propose incorporating structural equations, which include causal graph information, to enhance ambiguity sets, resulting in more realistic distributions. We introduce structural causal optimal transport and its associated ambiguity set, demonstrating their advantages and connections to previous methods. A key benefit of our approach is a relaxed version, where a regularization term replaces the complex causal constraints, enabling an efficient algorithm via difference-of-convex programming to solve structural causal optimal transport. We also show that when structural information is absent and must be estimated, our approach remains effective and provides finite sample guarantees. Lastly, we address the radius of ambiguity sets, illustrating how our method overcomes the curse of dimensionality in optimal transport problems, achieving faster shrinkage with dimension-free order.
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