arXiv:2510.00871cs.LG2025-10

用生成模型CT-GAN合成目标人口,提升交通规划数据真实性。

Target Population Synthesis using CT-GAN

  • 采用条件表格生成对抗网络CT-GAN直接生成目标人口数据。
  • 纯CT-GAN在单变量分布匹配上表现最佳,但多变量关系保持较弱。
  • 混合方法结合CT-GAN与优化算法,更精准符合目标年份统计数据。

交通与城市规划中的基于代理的模型通常需要详细的人口信息作为基础和目标情景输入。当前常用确定性合成方法在处理高维数据、可扩展性及零单元问题方面存在挑战,尤其在生成目标情景人口时。本研究探索使用条件表格生成对抗网络(CT-GAN)直接从边际约束中生成目标人口,或通过结合CT-GAN与基于适应度的组合优化(FBS-CO)的混合方法。实验基于出行调查数据与区级聚合人口数据评估模型性能。结果表明,独立使用的CT-GAN在单变量分布匹配上优于FBS-CO与混合模型;虽然其多变量关系保持能力有限,但混合模型通过先用CT-GAN生成描述性基础人口,再经FBS-CO优化以匹配目标年边际数据,显著提升了整体表现。研究证明了CT-GAN在目标人口合成中的有效性,并展示了深度生成模型与传统合成技术融合的潜力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Agent-based models used in scenario planning for transportation and urban planning usually require detailed population information from the base as well as target scenarios. These populations are usually provided by synthesizing fake agents through deterministic population synthesis methods. However, these deterministic population synthesis methods face several challenges, such as handling high-dimensional data, scalability, and zero-cell issues, particularly when generating populations for target scenarios. This research looks into how a deep generative model called Conditional Tabular Generative Adversarial Network (CT-GAN) can be used to create target populations either directly from a collection of marginal constraints or through a hybrid method that combines CT-GAN with Fitness-based Synthesis Combinatorial Optimization (FBS-CO). The research evaluates the proposed population synthesis models against travel survey and zonal-level aggregated population data. Results indicate that the stand-alone CT-GAN model performs the best when compared with FBS-CO and the hybrid model. CT-GAN by itself can create realistic-looking groups that match single-variable distributions, but it struggles to maintain relationships between multiple variables. However, the hybrid model demonstrates improved performance compared to FBS-CO by leveraging CT-GAN ability to generate a descriptive base population, which is then refined using FBS-CO to align with target-year marginals. This study demonstrates that CT-GAN represents an effective methodology for target populations and highlights how deep generative models can be successfully integrated with conventional synthesis techniques to enhance their performance.

人口合成生成模型城市规划数据生成

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