arXiv:2510.01074cs.LG2025-10中稿 · presentation at th…被引 1

用常规化验数据预测糖尿病视网膜病变,准确率超94%

Predicting Diabetic Retinopathy Using a Two-Level Ensemble Model

  • 两层集成学习:先调优基础模型,再用随机森林融合预测
  • 准确率0.9433,召回率0.9207,ROC-AUC达0.9844
  • 无需眼底图像,适合资源有限的临床场景

糖尿病视网膜病变(DR)是工作年龄人群失明的主要原因,当前诊断依赖昂贵的眼科检查和专业设备。基于图像的AI工具在早期检测中表现受限,亟需替代方案。本文提出一种非图像、两层级集成模型,仅使用常规实验室检验结果预测DR。第一阶段对线性SVC、随机森林、梯度提升及XGBoost进行超参数调优,并在不同配置下内部堆叠以优化准确率、召回率与精确率;第二阶段以随机森林作为元学习器聚合预测结果。该分层堆叠策略提升了泛化能力,多指标平衡性佳,且计算效率优于深度学习方法。模型在测试集上取得准确率0.9433、F1分数0.9425、召回率0.9207、精确率0.9653、ROC-AUC 0.9844、AUPRC 0.9875,显著优于单层堆叠和全连接网络基线。结果表明该模型具备临床应用潜力,可实现精准且可解释的DR风险评估。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Preprint Note: This is the author preprint version of a paper accepted for presentation at the IISE Annual Conference & Expo 2025. The final version will appear in the official proceedings. Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is a leading cause of blindness in working-age adults, and current diagnostic methods rely on resource-intensive eye exams and specialized equipment. Image-based AI tools have shown limitations in early-stage detection, motivating the need for alternative approaches. We propose a non-image-based, two-level ensemble model for DR prediction using routine laboratory test results. In the first stage, base models (Linear SVC, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and XGBoost) are hyperparameter tuned and internally stacked across different configurations to optimize metrics such as accuracy, recall, and precision. In the second stage, predictions are aggregated using Random Forest as a meta-learner. This hierarchical stacking strategy improves generalization, balances performance across multiple metrics, and remains computationally efficient compared to deep learning approaches. The model achieved Accuracy 0.9433, F1 Score 0.9425, Recall 0.9207, Precision 0.9653, ROC-AUC 0.9844, and AUPRC 0.9875, surpassing one-level stacking and FCN baselines. These results highlight the model potential for accurate and interpretable DR risk prediction in clinical settings.

糖尿病视网膜病变集成学习临床预测非图像模型

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